Our selections for the Lexus, Mackinnon & Derby are below. Please keep in mind that these selections are based on a dead track at Flemington. With the predicted rain we expect a downgrade from a Good3 to the Dead range. With that in mind here we go. Race 5 is the Lexus Stks over 2500m. The first of our selections is No.2 Caravan Rolls On. He was the winner of the Gp3 Geelong Cup last start in good fashion and needs to win this to gain a start in Tuesdays Melbourne Cup. A few of todays rivals ran behind him on that occasion and despite going up 4kg in weight we expect him to be in the finish. Second of our selections is No. 9 Signoff. Coming through a different form line to Caravans Roll On, he was a closing third to two European raiders in the Gp3 David Jones Cup at Caulfield. He is another that must win to gain entry into the Melbourne Cup and gains Joao Moreira for the ride, will be a big threat. Behind these two we had a little cluster of horses that may be fighting out the minors. These are 3, 5, 10, & 11. Race 6 is the Group 1 Mackinnon Stks. This is a wide open event so we will give you our top three and a roughie, then you can add anything else you might like. First selection is No.13 Criterion. Was a little unlucky when checked early and forced wide in the Cox Plate and didnt shirk his task when a game 7th only 1.5 lengths off the winner. Won or placed at 4 from 5 over this trip and will be hard to hold out if last weeks run hasnt taken too much out of him. Our next selection is the N.Z mare No.15 Rising Romance. Ran a cracking second to Melbourne Cup favourite Admire Rakti last start in the Caulfield Cup. Connections have elected not to go toward the Melbourne cup and have dropped her back in trip to this event. If she can dash at the back end of this race, it will take a good effort to hold her out. Third of them is Mourinho. a winner of the listed Cranbourne Cup last start and has been super consistent this time in. Not sure that the Cranbourne formline is strong enough but going to well to ignore and Craig Newitt has stayed on. Our Roughie is No. 14 Costume. She won a Gp1 last start in NZ over the 2040m. While this is toughe, she goes well at the trip and will be there abouts. Beware track going with this runner. If the track ends up on the worse side of Dead it could play against her. Just in behind these are 4,8,12. Race 7. The Derby. Group1 3yo. 2500m. Tough event to sort out as none of these have been over the trip. First selection is No.2 Moonovermanhattan. winner of the Group 2 Vase last start and that race has provided 7 of the last 10 winners of the derby. He came out of a similar Barrier last start and rolled forward, then shot away at the turn. Expect him to roll forward again and will take some running down if he can get the trip. Next selection is No.1 Hampton Court. From the waterhouse stable he was the winner of the Group 1 Spring Champion Stakes in Sydney. He sat back in the field and was able to explode over the top of them off a hot pace. Looked strong going to the post and expect hell get the trip, will be in the finish. Third pick is No. 11 Atmosphere. Had to sustain a wide run in the Vase last start and was a gallant second. Gives the impression that he will see out the 2500m and Moreira goes on. Being a Maiden is a small concern but has placed at his last 3 in a row. Should give a sight. No.5 is Magicool. Was always in trouble last start and was game running 5th. Draw is no help and will more than likely have to go back at the start. Looks fairly dour but with G.Boss on board could be the one looming late. Could be your value runner. The last of our selected runners is No. 8 Light Up Manhattan. Has been running on at his last couple of starts and is out of a Zabeel mare. Expect him to be coming late when some of the others may be out of gas. Should settle just of the pace and will be chiming in over the last 400m. Whether you follow these or not, good luck on the punt today and have an enjoyable Derby Day.
Posted on: Fri, 31 Oct 2014 22:52:28 +0000
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