The Americas Justin time Another Trudeau will probably lead Canada Nov 20th 2014 | OTTAWA | From The World In 2015 print edition Timekeeper economist/news/21631839-another-trudeau-will-probably-lead-canada-justin-time Nothing enrages Canada’s ruling Conservatives more than to hear the third-party Liberals described as the natural governing party of Canada. The Liberals may have held office for much of the last century, but the Tories have held sway since early 2006. For much of that time Stephen Harper, the prime minister, has been on a crusade to persuade Canadians that they are Conservatives, not Liberals, at heart. His tactics have ranged from the subtle (changing the background colour on government websites from Liberal red to Tory blue) to the blatant: trumpeting Canadian military exploits while downplaying the Liberal peacekeeping tradition. Former Conservative prime ministers and their accomplishments have been elevated; those of Liberal leaders ignored. Related topics Stephen Harper Politics World politics British politics European politics The general election scheduled for October 2015 is a test of whether Mr Harper and his party have changed the country’s default mindset. The prime minister is likely to be disappointed. It looks as if the best the Conservatives can hope for is a governing minority (they won such minorities in 2006 and 2008 and a majority in 2011). More probably, the Liberals, led by Justin Trudeau (pictured), will return to power. Surveys show that despite the Conservatives’ effort to stamp their brand on Canada, public opinion has been moving further to the left of centre. Proof of this came in the surprising electoral victory of the Liberals in the province of Ontario last June. Weighed down by scandal after a decade in power, the party was ripe for defeat. Yet when Ontarians were asked to choose between a leftish Liberal agenda full of new spending and the smaller-government, lower-tax pledges of the Progressive Conservatives, who share many of the convictions of the federal Conservatives, they gave a majority to the Liberals’ candidate, Kathleen Wynne, the first openly gay political leader in Canada. “If Ontario voters think government is the problem and greater acceptance of social diversity is a bad thing, they have a strange way of showing it,” concludes Michael Adams, a social commentator and head of Environics, a research company. One province does not a federal Liberal victory make, not even a province with more than a third of Canada’s 36m people. But national polls paint a broadly similar picture. The number of people who identified with the Conservatives rose in the first part of their mandate, but began falling when ethics and money scandals involving Conservative senators came to light, says André Turcotte, a professor and pollster. The Conservative universe, defined as the pool of voters who could potentially vote for the party, is about where it was in 2005, according to Tom Flanagan, a political scientist who worked on Mr Harper’s earlier campaigns. The economy, once thought to be the government’s strong suit, remains “lethargic”, according to the Conference Board of Canada, a business think-tank: growth of 2.3% or so is expected in the year ahead. The Liberals, led ineffectually in the 2008 and 2011 elections, have a new, popular leader in Mr Trudeau, son of the late Pierre Trudeau, who was Canada’s prime minister for 15 years. “I’m not a Justin Trudeau supporter,” says Mr Flanagan. “But there’s no denying he excites Liberals. Their fundraising has gone up and he attracts big crowds.” Demography does not favour the Conservatives. “Canadian millennials are the most liberal, progressive and multicultural generation in our history,” says Mr Adams of the country’s younger cohort. The Liberals and the left-leaning New Democrats, led by Thomas Mulcair, are working hard to persuade this notoriously ballot-shy group to vote. The 2016 temptation The situation is not hopeless for the Conservatives. The economy could conceivably rebound. The anticipated elimination of the budget deficit in 2015 gives them room to further shrink the government or buy votes. Security and terrorism, issues on which the Conservatives are perceived to be strong, could rise up the list of public priorities following the October shooting in Ottawa. There remains the possibility that Mr Harper will play for time. In 2008 he ignored his own vaguely worded legislation fixing elections at four-year intervals, and he could do so again. The constitution still calls for elections every five years—May 2016, in this instance. The political landscape may look different by then. Madelaine Drohan: Canada correspondent, The Economist From The World In 2015 print edition
Posted on: Wed, 26 Nov 2014 22:41:54 +0000
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