VERY BIG STORM COMING An already wet later half of September will unfortunately get wetter as a system has developed that was not in the forecast last week and is rapidly moving toward the west coast. This next system may not have even happened had it not been juiced with the remnants of typhoon Pabuk from the western Pacific. The entrainment of the tropical moisture into the jet stream flow in the last couple of days has been dramatic ... the NWS has even said "WHAT A DIFFERENCE 3-4 DAYS HAVE MADE IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE, THIS WAS NOT EXPECTED AT ALL!" They are even calling this an unprecedented "ATMOSPHERIC RIVER" of moisture for anytime of the year, let alone September. There is still some uncertainty in the models for locations of highest moisture and duration of the system, but all evidence is pointing to the system coming onshore Saturday night through Sunday from the Olympics down into Northern California. Rainfall amounts could be extreme with NWS noting that current model solutions show a 30 year event with rainfall totals up to 10" along the coastal zones and some higher elevations. Inland valleys will get less, but still more than any of us likely want, and depends on storm track and duration. Temperatures are likely to be warmer due to the tropical moisture, but still cool for this time of year. Regards, Greg Gregory V. Jones, PhD. Department of Environmental Studies 1250 Siskiyou Blvd Ashland, OR 97520 Tel: 541-552-6758 Fax: 541-552-6439 email: [email protected]
Posted on: Fri, 27 Sep 2013 15:40:24 +0000
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