Weekly Index Outlook ( Nifty ,BankNifty ,USDINR ) 9 August 2014 Domestic directional Microeconomics numbers such as CPI and IIP will induce volatility in markets for the Next week , Investors eyed on global political developments : Mr.Nandkishor Patil Global Front : Ongoing Geopolitical tensions in West Asia and Europe will keep global Markets Under pressure , Tensions in Ukraine and muscle flexing by Russia added risk aversion also Israel launched air strikes across the Gaza Strip, US began air strikes on Iraq, This fearful situations may weigh on global markets for next couple of weeks. will may fueled to higher bond yields and to depreciation of currencies of EMs against greenback may leads to deeper correction in EMs equities Past last week Most global equity markets closed with losses due to Geopolitical Tensions, Investors worried about as Sharp Correction in US and European markets suggesting are the Global markets at the start of new downside journey as The Fed has cut its monthly bond purchases, part of its efforts to revive the economy, at its last policy meetings. The Fed is currently on track to completely stop buying bonds by the end of the year, setting up expectations for an eventual hike in rates.History has seen emerging markets usually experiencing economic storms after the Fed embarks on tighter monetary policy. Domestic Front : Last week we saw The Reserve Bank of India kept Cash Reserve Ratio, repo and reverse repo rates unchanged, and cut Statutory Liquidity Ratio (SLR) rate by 50 basis points in its Monitory policy ,This week we have Important directional data s such as industrial production numbers (IIP) as well as inflation numbers (CPI) Scheduled for release on Tuesday , Volumes were strong in derivative markets while it was subdued in the cash segment.Oscillators are in negative zone signalling a reversal in the short-term trend.The weekly oscillators giving a sell signal for the short term likely leading to the start of the widely discussed correction that continues to be debated. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Nifty (7,568.5) Last week CNX Nifty close below the 50-day moving average at 7,610 , CNX Nifty Forming Bullish butterfly pattern , early Expected range for current series 7350 - 7840,In my last report, I expected Nifty to fall from 7760 levels for lower levels of 7544 with stoploss of 7803 we complete that mission , In last article we had indicated that the index needs to close below 7,544 to turn the short-term trend completely negative, Friday we saw the index is poised around this levels Fresh long positions should be avoided if the index dips below this level. Subsequent targets are 7424 and 7,383. , 7 350 On the other hand, reversal from these levels will take the index higher to 7,624 and 7,662, 7720 Inability to move above second resistance 7,662 will be the cue for short-term traders to initiate fresh short positions. On Technical hand BASIC View for Current August series : In my last report, I expected Nifty to fall from 7760 levels for lower levels of 7544 with stoploss of 7803 we complete that mission ..as per previous early identified pattern, CNX Nifty forming Bullish Butterfly pattern , For more Information pls see bellow chart The AB retrace of XA is 61% The BC/AB Climb is 64%, The AD/XA move expected to 110%, bellow the low end of the 127% to 161.8% range , So after the D im expecting Nifty to move up but not to cross A , ITS Means I am not expecting to cross 7840.10 ie Ultimate High ,,on nifty in current series , For current series im expecting to form bottom around 7367- 7350 level, and ultimate lifetime high may work as Top ,,,,,,Stay cautious ,,,Stay Tuned :) :) Key level for The week - 7544 on Downside and 7662 On Upside Positional Support for NIFTY - 7544, 7424, 7383, 7350 positional Immediate resistance for NIFTY - 7624, 7662, 7720. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Bank Nifty As indicated in last article Immediate strong resistance for the BANKNifty is at 15450 Inability to move above this level will index can then retreat to 15284 first and then 15150, 15040 ,14835 in the coming sessions. we complete that mission ,all of you witness of that , now from here , Immediate resistance for Bank Nifty are at 15040 , 15155 - 15210 Traders should look to create short positions with decent small targets as soon as Index trades bellow 15155 level. Immediate support that needs to be watched is at 146676 The next support is at the previous neckline ie 14221 Immediate resistance are ,14960. We do not see a rally above 15155 -15210 zone just yet. But if it happens, then next target would be 15600 for short term. Remember corrections are very difficult to trade stay conscious Key level for The week - 14676 on Downside and 15210 On Upside Positional Support for NIFTY - 14676 , 14221 , 15040 positional Immediate resistance for NIFTY - 14960, 15155, 15210 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- USDINR (61.14) Expected high volatility drama on currency front Expected weekly Volatile Range - 60.30 - 62.10 From last 3-4 weeks we continuously suggesting buying in USDINR from level 59.67 and suggesting strong buy above 60.30 with target price 60.80 and 61.20 we completed that short term targets Now from here Ongoing Geopolitical tensions in West Asia and Europe lift/ boost the Usdinr at its 6 months highs USD/INR broke out of our expected technical level of 60.80 last week. However, the same was triggered by more of a sudden event risk from US. A breakout above the resistance 61.20 will suggesting that index moving towords 61.80 and 62.10 , 8-13-21-days EMAs have confirmed slightly positive signal. However, the possibility of a corrective fall towards 60.70/60.40 still remains open in this week. On the downside the pair is likely to find crucial support near 60.80 followed by 60.30 levels whereas on the upside 61.40 followed by 61.80 ,62.10 are likely to act as good resistance areas. Key Factors for week 1) CPI numbers 2) IIP Numbers 3) Manufacturing Output 4) currency prices 5) bond yield prices 6) Global political Development 7) Q1 earnings For more details log on to www*npstocks*com -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- wwwnpstockscom.blogspot.in/2014/08/domestic-directional-microeconomics.html
Posted on: Sun, 10 Aug 2014 21:30:42 +0000
Trending Topics
Recently Viewed Topics
© 2015