DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0800 PM CDT SAT OCT 05 2013 VALID 060100Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF FAR SE MO...FAR SRN IL...FAR SRN IND...NRN TN AND KY... ...OH VALLEY... THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE ST LOUIS AREA SWD INTO ERN AR. NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM SE MO ENEWD ACROSS KY INTO SRN IND. THIS ACTIVITY IS LOCATED ALONG A CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S F. MESOSCALE ANALYSIS IS SUGGESTING MODERATE INSTABILITY IN PLACE WITH SBCAPE VALUES ESTIMATED IN THE 1000 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE. IN ADDITION TO THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...THE WSR-88D VWP AT LOUISVILLE AND PADUCAH KY SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR IN 35 TO 40 KT RANGE WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR AROUND 25 KT. THIS SHEAR ENVIRONMENT APPEARS SUFFICIENT FOR A ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT AND ROTATING STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS WHERE THE STORMS HAVE ACCESS TO THE STRONGER INSTABILITY. AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT...CURRENTLY ONGOING IN WRN TN NEAR THE KY STATE-LINE SHOULD CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND MAY SPREAD ENEWD AS A LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS ACROSS WRN TN AND WRN KY. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THE BETTER ORGANIZED CELLS...REFERENCE MCD 1944. THE SEVERE THREAT COULD EXTEND AS FAR SOUTH AS NW MS WHERE SHEAR IS A BIT WEAKER BUT SBCAPE IS ESTIMATED AROUND 2000 J/KG.
Posted on: Sun, 06 Oct 2013 01:33:07 +0000
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