FXUS62 KMLB 011855 AFDMLB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 255 PM EDT SUN SEP 1 2013 .DISCUSSION... TONIGHT...EAST/WEST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES PROGRESSING INLAND WITH PREVAILING SOUTHWEST FLOW PUSHING THE WEST COAST BOUNDARY IN MORE QUICKLY. THIS POINTS TO STRONGEST BOUNDARY COLLISIONS OCCURRING ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF THE PENINSULA. LIKE YESTERDAY... THERE WILL BE ADDED BOUNDARY INTERACTION FROM CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA. EXPECT SOUTHERN AREAS TO GET WORKED OVER THROUGH EARLY EVENING BUT NORTHERN AREAS MAY HAVE CONVECTION LINGER A FEW HOURS PAST SUNSET AGAIN. PLAN TO CARRY SCATTERED POPS (30-40 PERCENT) THROUGH EVENING FOR MOST OF THE AREA. MON-TUE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL ONLY NUDGE SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD AS ANOTHER FRONTAL TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL HALT ANY SIGNIFICANT PROGRESS UP THE PENINSULA. HENCE WE WILL STAY IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALBEIT BECOMING WEAKER. LOW-MID LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH WILL KEEP STEERING WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THOUGH. DEEP MOISTURE LOOKS INTERESTING AS THE GFS SHOWS A POCKET OF DRIER AIR PRESENTLY IN THE GULF OF MEXICO ROTATING AROUND LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE AND SPREADING ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AREAS. THE MODEL HAS BEEN SHOWING THIS TREND SO POPS SHOULD SHOW A NORTH/SOUTH GRADIENT. WILL GO WITH A SIMILAR BREAKDOWN BOTH DAYS WITH 30 POPS NORTH HALF AND 40 SOUTH HALF. MOS IS LOWER THAN THIS ON MON AND WITH 700 MB TEMPS AROUND 9 CELSIUS...THE DAYTIME COVERAGE MAY LAG THE 30-40 PERCENT WE ARE SHOWING...BUT SOME MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR. WED-SAT (PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES OFF OF THE EASTERN U.S. COAST... NORTH OF THE AREA...WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS MOVING FARTHER NORTH OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA. LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO THE S/SE AND WILL ALLOW FOR EARLIER DEVELOPMENT AND FARTHER INLAND MOVEMENT OF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE FROM MID TO LATE WEEK. GREATEST RAIN CHANCES AND THREAT FOR STRONGER AFT STORMS WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE INTERIOR WITH RAIN CHANCES UP TO 40 PERCENT. TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION... EAST COAST SEA BREEZE MOVING SLOWLY INLAND FROM THE CAPE SOUTHWARD AT 18Z. THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE DID NOT HAVE AS MUCH CONVECTION ON IT AS YESTERDAY. CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA SHOULD PUSH A BOUNDARY NORTHWARD DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. LOCAL WRF MODEL SHOWS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH AS BOUNDARIES INTERACT SOUTH OF KMCO THROUGH 21Z...THEN INCREASES KMCO NORTHWARD FROM 22Z UNTIL A FEW HOURS PAST SUNSET. QUICK LOOK AT MON...NOT A LOT OF CHANGE IN THE LOW/MID LEVEL PATTERN. BUT WE KNOW THAT NO TWO DAYS ARE EVER EXACTLY THE SAME IN FLORIDA WITH RESPECT TO WHEN/WHERE CONVECTION OCCURS. THE HIGHEST MOISTURE IS INDICATED SOUTH OF KISM-KMCO-KTIX SO WOULD EXPECT GREATEST COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON STORMS THERE...HOWEVER WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME POSSIBLE DEBRIS CLOUD CONTAMINATION AS MID TO UPPER LEVEL WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST. THIS MAY DELAY HEATING IN SOME SPOTS. && .MARINE... TONIGHT...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS SOUTHERN PENINSULA WILL PRODUCE A SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW 10 KNOTS OR LESS. NORTHERN WATERS MAY HAVE SOME 10-15 KNOT WINDS INTO THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. SOME OFFSHORE MOVING STORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING. LABOR DAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE. WINDS LOOK TO BE SOUTHWEST 10 KNOTS OR LESS EXCEPT FOR AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND AN EVENING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS IN THE NORTHERN WATERS. OFFSHORE MOVING STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING LOOK POSSIBLE AGAIN. TUE-THU...WEAK SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD NUDGE NORTHWARD AND BY MID WEEK THE AXIS WILL EXTEND ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. WINDS TUE LOOK LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWEST...THEN LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WED AND THEN A LITTLE MORE ONSHORE AREAWIDE ON THU. THERE IS STILL A CHANCE FOR OFFSHORE MOVING STORMS TUE AFTERNOON/EVE...THEN IT LOOKS LIKE THE DAYTIME STORMS SHOULD HOLD MAINLY OVER THE PENINSULA WED-THU. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 74 92 73 93 / 30 30 20 30 MCO 74 94 74 94 / 20 30 20 30 MLB 74 91 74 92 / 30 30 20 30 VRB 73 91 74 91 / 30 30 20 30 LEE 74 94 75 95 / 20 30 20 30 SFB 75 94 75 95 / 20 30 20 30 ORL 76 94 76 94 / 20 30 20 30 FPR 72 90 72 91 / 30 30 20 30 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. && $$ FORECASTS...LASCODY IMPACT WX/RADAR....MOSES PALMBAYWEATHER.info
Posted on: Sun, 01 Sep 2013 18:55:35 +0000
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