From the NWS EAX: AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 626 PM CDT MON AUG 26 2013 .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday Night) Issued at 348 PM CDT MON AUG 26 2013 Other than some very minor cosmetic changes have maintained the previous forecast. A large upper high extending from the Rockies eastward will continue to be the primary influence on our weather. With no frontal boundary nor upper level disturbances to affect the region we can expect the hot and dry weather to continue. Progged 850mb temperatures of 20C-23C for Tuesday are about 1C warmer than today so persistence +1 seems logical. With a prolonged period of heat and no influx of low level moisture boundary layer mixing should improve and result in slightly lower dewpoints. This would offset the slightly warmer air temperatures and result in similar heat index values, which remain below advisory criteria. So will not issue any headlines but maintain the public awareness of the prolonged heat via Special Weather Statements as well as posting info on social media outlets. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 348 PM CDT MON AUG 26 2013 Nothing much has changed over the past couple of days as the medium range models maintain a firmly entrenched and expansive upper high from the Rockies to the Mid Atlantic states. Temperatures will average around 10 degrees above average through the weekend and could extend into next Monday. Have opted to disregard the ECMWF solution of a weak backdoor cold front moving westward through northeast MO Sunday night and the entire CWA by next Monday. While one can hope the ECMWF is right it is better to maintain status quo when dealing with such a huge upper high until there is a definitive shortwave that can push through and alter the flow. Later shifts will need to consider a multi-day heat advisory starting Wednesday should the current forecast be maintained or if temperatures/dewpoints are raised. A prolonged period of afternoon heat indices in the 100 to 104 range could take a toll on groups prone to heat stress. The NAM/GFS/ECMWF and GEM, to varying degrees, work a backdoor cold front southwestward through IL and IA Wednesday night and Thursday. They all have shown good run-to-run continuity with the NAM the only model working the cold front into the CWA by Thursday. The other models get close but no cigar. The current forecast will side with consensus and maintain a dry forecast, but will keep an eye on the NAM as its solution could generate a band of convection within the narrow baroclinic zone. And there is still the question of what if any weather will accompany the remnants of the tropical depression in the northern Gulf of Mexico which tracks clockwise around the outer periphery of the upper high. The medium range models are very similar through Thursday as they lift the feature into KS but then they go their separate ways...owing to the very weak steering flow over the central U.S. given the strong cap in place and inspecting the progged soundings it is difficult to get excited by anything more than clouds working this far west. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening) Issued at 626 PM CDT MON AUG 26 2013 Clear skies and unlimited visibilities expected through the period, with southwest winds averaging around 10 knots (lower overnight STJ). && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. MO...NONE. &&
Posted on: Mon, 26 Aug 2013 23:53:06 +0000
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