From the tax office Everybody should read this then SHARE. Show your Grannies and Grandads. No wonder Westminster want to keep us. Calum Mackinnon HMRC calculates in the tax year 2011-2012 revenue raised in Scotland was £45,056,000,000, Scotland’s block grant funding was 26,984,660,000 so last year, we contributed a little over £18bn to the union. Looking at welfare. Benefits (includes; tax credits, pensions, as well as JSA and ESA and PIP and DLA and carers allowance) spending in Scotland were £17.2bn. Hence just under a £billion in the black. Factoring in un-attributed economic activity of conservative estimates of between £2-4bn, Scotland is between £3-5bn in budget surplus. It has to be noted, however that Scotland’s block grant figures INCLUDE our share of UK debt repayments - £4.5bn per annum. The UK would need to seriously consider a currency union with Scotland or risk seeing Scotland retain this amount, putting us somewhere between £7.5 and £9.5bn in surplus. Now look at defence. Scotland’s block grant figures include our share of the defence budget Scotland’s contribution to UK defence budget is £1.9bn non of which is specifically spent on Scotland with the exception of the Royal Marines stationed in Arbroath. It is fair to say that the nuclear arsenal at Faslane is not really for Scotland’s benefit, so now we’re looking at a surplus in excess of £11bn. Turning now to Scotland’s ‘share’ of UK responsibility projects such as; HS2, the Westminster sewer upgrades, Westminster refurbishments and the London subway upgrades, conservatively another £0.6bn to £1.3bn a year. Let’s assume the lower estimate of £0.6bn, Scotland is £10 to £12bn a year in surplus (assuming Scotland would continue to fund projects that benefit England only). That’s not far off half the block grant allocation. A fairly healthy surplus in world terms and we haven’t even looked at ‘The elephant in the room’ - Oil. In the tax year 2011-12, the UK North Sea oil/gas revenue was £469,777,000,000. Under international maritime law, its estimated that 80-90% of UK oil is within what would be Scottish territory/territorial waters. Taking the lower estimate of 80%, thats £375,821,600,000. Now remember - Scotland operates on less than 45 billion pounds a year, oil revenue for Scotland, is over 8.3 times our national operating budget on an annual basis. Better Together, however, like to claim oil revenue is in decline. HMRCs own figures, on the other hand, show, almost every year since the 1999-2000 tax year, oil revenues have risen (sole exceptions were tax years 2008-2009, and 2009-2010). Oil is a bonus, Scotland does not need it to be a financially healthy nation, but it’s nice to have it all the same. Lets assume that Scotland takes on a population-proportionate share of UK’s debt, in order to secure a currency union. The current expectation is that by tax year 2016-2017, our population share of the UK debt, would be £126bn. Scotland’s oil revenue alone is £375bn, an independent Scotland could take our share of the UKs debt in order to secure a currency union, PAY IT OFF within a year, WITHOUT even affecting our operating budget. Indeed without having our overall revenue ceded to Westminster, Scotland would start building a sovereign wealth fund with a conservatively estimated pot of £250bn. That’s just year one, once all the dust has settled from Scotland becoming independent. Tertiary Education, The NHS, Industry subsidies, The Police and Military, Social reform including pensions, infrastructure development and expansion, all perfectly affordable. That’s why ‘Just call me Dave’ admits Scotland could be independent. Source(s); HMRC data.
Posted on: Tue, 16 Sep 2014 12:07:30 +0000
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