Good TGI Friday morning! I hope that you had a very Merry Christmas and that you enjoyed time spent with friends and family! I really want thank Alyssa & Brian for filling in for me and allowing me to be able to have a family Christmas. I have attached a LOT of information for you to look over this morning! The Arctic air is on its way with the first dose of it arriving this morning. There’s a couple chance of snow with the amounts looking light and the VERY cold air for next week is still on its way with perhaps, two doses of it coming (if the European Computer Model is correct.) So, let’s get started! The first dose of cold, Canadian air is moving through the area this morning and winds are switching around to the north at 15-25 mph with some gusts upward of 35-40 mph ongoing. Folks, simply put, it’s going to be a cold day today with high temperatures not making it out of the 20s and 30s over most of the area. The attached NAM (North American Model) has highs around 61 in Childress, but I seriously doubt that this will happen since the cold front is already blowing through Amarillo right now! Okay, let’s talk about snow. The snow should start flying anytime later this morning and continue through the rest of the day. I’ve attached ALL of the computer model’s idea on how much snow is expected to fall across the area and you can see that they all agree that the best chances of accumulating snowfall (1-2”) will be from Boise City to Dalhart to around Tucumcari. This area, according to the GFS (American Model) might be a little more (2-4’?), but we will see if that happens or not. Regardless, the snow will be primarily confined to areas along and west of a Guymon-Amarillo-Tulia line. Skies will be mostly cloudy to cloudy today. The storm system will move out tonight and all it will do is just keep more cold air in place for tomorrow. Overnight low temperatures will drop into the single digits and teens and the winds will settle down a little from the north at 10-20 mph, but that will create wind chill values that will be around zero, if not down to -10 tonight…so bundle up accordingly if you are going to be out and about tonight and early tomorrow morning! Skies will be partly to mostly cloudy. Saturday will be a cold day with high temperatures right at freezing, if not a few degrees below. A cold north wind at 10-20 mph will blow for most of the day, dropping our wind chill values down around zero to -10 degrees in the morning, then “rising” to around 10-20 degrees in the afternoon hours. Skies will be partly cloudy, so we will see some sunshine that will try to warm us up, but don’t expect much warmth tomorrow! We will get a day to briefly warm-up on Sunday as the next surge of VERY cold, Arctic air gets ready to move our way. High temperatures will rise into the 40s to around 50 degrees as mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies prevail. The winds may get a little gusty on Sunday as southwesterly winds at 15-25 mph with some higher gusts in the 35-40 mph range occur. Enjoy the warmth as it will be short-lived and if there’s something that you have to do outdoors that you need warm weather to accomplish (perhaps, taking down the Christmas decorations…that will be MY job on Sunday!) As we head back to work on Monday, get ready…here IT comes again! The Arctic cold front will arrive during the day and the computer model data keeps our highs in the 30s to around 40 degrees as our winds swing around to the north during the day. Now, here’s another “computer model bias” about Arctic air that we have talked about recently….that computer models have a tough time with the arrival of Arctic air. I call it the “too slow in and too fast out” bias. They tend to show the Arctic air arriving later than it really does (today is a good example) and they tend to warm it up too fast when it does show up. So, I wouldn’t be surprised if it ends up colder on Monday than the highs we are showing, but time will tell. Tuesday will be very cold with a VERY slight chance of some snow. The amounts of snow are in the trace to dusting category and I wouldn’t be surprised if we do see something, but just don’t expect much. High temperatures will only rise into the 20s under mostly cloudy to cloudy skies and snow flurries likely as well. Winds will blow from the north and northeast at 10-20 mph, creating wind chills very close to zero! Wednesday (New Year’s Eve) will be a chilly end to 2014 with high temperatures only in the 20s to around 30 degrees again and the winds still blowing from the north and northeast at 10-20 mph in the morning, then switch around to the southwest in the afternoon at 5-15 mph, causing wind chills back near zero. During the morning when the low temperatures are around 0-10 degrees, wind chills as low as -10 to -15 degrees are likely! Be very careful with temperatures that low as frost bite can happen quickly! New Year’s Day will be a day in which we have a shot at getting above freezing for a high temperature….hopefully! Again, much depends on how much Arctic air erodes away during the day, but there may be a few areas of light snow or rain as well. The computer models are showing an upper-level disturbance moving by quickly in the southwesterly flow aloft, so a light dusting to a trace of rain/snow will be possible, but not very likely at this time. What is likely is another cold day with mostly cloudy to cloudy skies and southwesterly and southerly winds at 5-15 mph in the morning and 10-20 mph in the afternoon. Of course, that will just make it feel colder outside when you factor in the wind chill value. On TGI Friday of next week, the weather is a little less certain with the models showing a dramatic warm-up into the 50s and 60s….ahead of yet another surge of cold, Arctic air. Now, as I have mentioned before, the computer models tend to warm things up too fast in the wake of an Arctic Outbreak like this one, so I would temper my expectations on just how warm it will be. I think the 40s to around 50 degrees looks more plausible than the mid 60s that the European and GFS are showing. Regardless, it will be “warmer” compared to the chill of early next week….so enjoy it! Southwesterly winds at 10-20 mph will occur as well. The computer models are showing an upper-level storm system moving by Friday afternoon, evening and Saturday morning. It will be really interesting to see how this situation unfolds as it has a rain/snow mix for our area with an additional inch or two of snow expected. Now, let’s play “Devil’s Advocate” here and say that the cold air shows up earlier (which nearly always happens) and then this storm moves by? Could be pretty snowy if that happens! So, stay tuned and I will keep you updated on this potential, but it will be something to watch! Take care, have a great “day after Christmas” and I’ll see you back here first thing tomorrow morning with another “forecast discussion!”
Posted on: Fri, 26 Dec 2014 12:41:45 +0000