Monthly Outlook Summary Is there more cold weather on the way? Last week saw a bitter transition into much colder weather which brought the first frost to many grounds around the UK. The lowest minimum temperature we saw last week was -2.8°C on Friday 11th October recorded at Tyndrum in Scotland. Yet again though it looks as if change is on the cards and temperatures for most could once again be on the up. Monday 14 October—Sunday 20 October East meets West We start this working week with eastern England clinging on to the low pressure centre that has brought us plenty of rainfall over the past few days. This will continue to bring cloudier skies with patchy rain and drizzle for eastern regions of the United Kingdom for the start of the week; the best of the brighter spells being towards northern and western regions. Mid-week is when we start to see the big switch. Weather systems will start to approach from the west, rather than the north and east, with bands of rain crossing the country. These will also be accompanied with some fairly lively winds at times. The east of the UK will become drier, the west will become wetter, but all will become slightly warmer with temperatures by the end of the week rising to roughly what we would expect for this time of year - if not slightly above! Monday 21 October—Sunday 27 October Unsettled weather continuing At this stage next week looks set to have weather systems continuing to push in from the west bringing plenty of rain for southern and western locations. Drier and brighter conditions prevail in the east and north where there is slightly more shelter from a westerly wind. Next week also looks set to have warmer nights than of late; temperatures should stay fairly mild through the night with frosts unlikely for most. Monday 28 October—Sunday 3 November High pressure set to build from the south Looking further ahead it looks like the weather for most of us is going to stay unsettled with plenty of frontal systems pushing in from the Atlantic on a brisk westerly wind. One slight difference to the outlook is an area of high pressure that looks set to push up over southern regions of the UK. Towards to the start of November it is likely that this zone will push low pressure systems increasingly to the north of the UK. High pressure building in the south will allow the weather to settle down here with a mixture of cloud and brighter spells. Fog will become increasingly probable during this period however, and given the time of year may be fairly sluggish to clear during the mornings. Temperatures are expected to be about what we would anticipate for this time of year, ranging in the low teens, but will start to feel somewhat cooler in the north and east with the risk of overnight frosts increasing, especially in north east Scotland. Next week Will the slightly warmer weather stay with us through November? Monthly forecasting The weather beyond about a week ahead stretches even the most experienced weather forecaster. Complex numerical weather forecast models from the Met Office and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) are run many times for the month (and season) ahead to build up a picture of the likelihood of different weather types affecting the UK. Next update at 10:00, Monday 21 October
Posted on: Mon, 14 Oct 2013 22:47:59 +0000
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