OMC Sector: Oil sales review 4MFY14 & Oct-13 Written as on - TopicsExpress

OMC Sector: Oil sales review 4MFY14 & Oct-13 Written as on November 08, 2013 In todays Value Seeker we present an update on provisional sales data of OMCs for the month of Oct13 and 4MFY14. Furthermore, we also highlight the market share seized by different OMCs. 4MFY14: Mogas & FO volumes scaled up by 17%YoY and 13%YoY Mogas and FO volumes of OMC sector witnessed a hike of 17%YoY (1.23mn tons v/s1.05mn tons) and 13%YoY (3.4mn tons v/s 3.0mn tons) during 4MFY14. Higher Mogas sales can be justified on the back of acute CNG loading shedding in most part of the country. Whereas, better power generation by FO based plants is the key reason behind FO sales hike. We expect, complete CNG shutdown (SNGPL network) in winter months to further boost Mogas sales going forward. However, lower electricity demand in winter may suppress FO sales upto some extent. During the period under analysis, HSD sales inched up by a meager 4%YoY to 2.2mn tons on account of lower growth in economic activity. PSO being the market leader in OMC sector observed 14%YoY growth in Mogas and 11%YoY growth in FO in 4MFY14. However, HSD sales of PSO decreased by 7%YoY to 1.1mn tons. APL, a fast pace growing OMC experienced highest growth in all three major products reflecting a jump of 27%YoY, 41%YoY& 19%YoY in HSD, Mogas and FO sales respectively. Mogas sale by Shell has increased by 15%YoY to 235k in 4MFY14 as compared to 204k tons during the same period last year. POL volumes depict a MoM drop in Oct13 Mogas sales of OMC sector declined by 10%MoM to 280k tons in Oct 13. We attribute this fall primarily to ~4% increase in price of the same from 1Oct13. Furthermore, 6%MoM drop in HSD sales can be justified on account of lower consumption of the same in agriculture sector. FO volumes remain positive (2% to 774k) on account of higher consumption in power sector. Market share analysis PSO witnessed a major drop of 7% to 52% in market share of HSD during 4MFY14 as compared to same period last year. On monthly basis PSOs market share of Mogas decreased by 4% while market share of FO increased by an equal amount. No major change in Shells market share during 4MFY14 was witnessed. APL however managed to increase its market share of HSD by 2% to 12% during 4MFY14.

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