Outcome Bias: the tendency of portraying decisions taken earlier as either good or bad based on the outcome being good or bad. That is not how it works. Every decision has a probability of turning right or wrong, because there are huge environmental/ non control variables of which one can only have an estimate. The hallmark of good decisions then becomes as the ones which have a higher probability of giving the output desired. Nevertheless, they would have a non zero probability of giving a bad outcome as well. And vice versa for a bad decision. You can end up very well despite bad decisions. The idea then becomes to keep on maximizing probability of good outcomes in each decisions made so that, even when one can be wrong on and off, over a long period of time, one is closer to the desired goal. Today when it seems that AAPs decisions might have lead it to where it is, one needs to keep this outcome bias in mind. At the point each decisions were taken they sounded about right given the scenario. And the plan on which the team was working was fairly ok. Yes there could have been alternate plans, other ways of working. But given that they could have chosen only one plan and worked on that, they were doing ok. Infact the result of it has also not been that bad, maybe not as good, but definitely not bad. They have identified another state apart from Delhi were they can have a strong presence (Punjab). They understand how strong money power can be and how crucial it is. They also now have a pan India Map of where they can start focussing. And indeed even in Delhi, they have completely replaced congress as the main party/opposition. Historically mass movements have always been fast up. Even In India BJP moved from 2 seats to 100 in a span of 2-3 years based on Babri movement. In light of this AAP took decision to fight Pan India. They didnt spread themselves too thin, for the party in its entirety, except for the rallies of AK in couple of states, kept focussing on the seats they thought they had chances. Delhi, Punjab, Haryana, Amethi and Varanasi. The idea was wherever there is high discontent, people themselves would throw up candidates, money to fight and votes to win. They would provide the platform. Which they did. And its not that discontent was not there. It was. Same discontent which brought them to power in Delhi was present across India. But this time, discontent sided not with them but with BJP. At national level they had much better presence, already an existing vote base on Hindutva and upper caste, and humungous money. This combined with the rhetoric of development, extremely well sold through the money power, gave them a tremendous edge. India is used to seeing minority polarization, but it saw for the first time a majority polarization. For those who wanted Hindutva, there was RSS, NM himself being a member. Plus the tit bits that flowed in from Giriraj Togadia and Shah. And you had NM fighting from Varanasi. For those who wanted development, there was the Gujarat Model. And then there was the money power, overflowing with donations of all kinds. Mafia and Gundas were bought (check out Bihar candidates) And the remaining last card of caste politics was thrown in with NM being OBC and tickets given strongly along caste lines. A heady mix. And it delivered. Even more beautifully than they themselves expected. In this rout which left even the biggest players with nothing, AAP got 4 seats in a state where they had no presence just about 3 months ago. They increased their vote share in Delhi. AK himself got 2L votes against NM. And the party now has a pan India organizational structure. Yup. AAP model works. Maybe not that well. But it does. There has been learnings. Referring back to the outcome bias discussion earlier, while not painting the decisions good or bad based on outcomes only, one should strive for bettering their estimates of environmental variables with each outcome. Good or bad. For they form a key of how to make decisions. For example, while resigning from the Delhi govt, a tactical move asking for a better mandate through immediate elections, AK would never have imagined that he would be pilloried more for leaving the government rather than forming the government! And that in this power hungry world of Indian politics! So thats a learning. You have to be inclusive always. Any out of ordinary decision can be painted bad. And it was. Truthfully though, getting 28 seats was a blessing and a curse. 28 seats mile the, 7 aur mil hi sakte the, they would have been a majority govt and that would have been so easy to handle. Or they could have got 25 seats and wouldnt have been forced to form the government. Nahi. 28 seats. Na Idhar ka na Udhar ka. When such hands are dealt, there are bound to be difficulties, which is what AAP is facing. What now? Remember the basics. We like AAP because we believe the current political system is broken. Assuming that is true, the discontent is going to be there even after BJP govt. For they are still a part of same system! You still have RSS, Giriraj, Togadia, Yedurappas in folds. So the basic assumption holds. Give it time and the discontent will bring AAP back. On the other hand of we are wrong, and indeed NM is a jadugar as he says he is, great, he will change India completely. As such that was our aim nahi? So yet no loss :) My only fear is that NM might be able to address the immediate discontent while not the longer term ones. In such a case we might land up in the frog position, who will escape if thrown in boiling water but will burn to death if slowly warmed in the water. In such a scenario we end up as lose all. The idea of having honest politician working for country, something that was there only for about 20 years post independence, an era which unified India, kept it unified, gave IITs and IIMs, built the heavy machinery backbone of India which still remains critical (likes of BHEL NTPC ONGC etc) built Dams at a scale not seen after, the green revolution and all this while suffering from acute budget deficit, is worth fighting for. That is the strength of honest statesmen and politicians. Hope the worst scenario doesnt plays out. Lets see.
Posted on: Mon, 19 May 2014 10:53:46 +0000
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