SEVERE WEATHER WARNING ISSUED FROM SKYWARN!! SKYWARN UK SEVERE WEATHER WATCH #030 ISSUED: 2200UTC SUNDAY 4TH AUGUST 2013 SKYWARN UK FORECASTS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER AS FOLLOWS: HEAVY RAIN LEADING TO A RISK OF LOCALISED FLOODING - WALES, MIDLANDS, NORTHERN & SOUTHWEST ENGLAND IN EFFECT FROM 2200UTC SUNDAY 4TH UNTIL 2100UTC MONDAY 5TH AUGUST 2013 LOW DEVELOPING ALONG A SATURATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY, GENERATING HEAVY AND PERSISTENT RAINFALL DISCUSSION: THERE IS STRONG MODEL AND SATELLITE DATA TO SUGGEST A SEVERE WEATHER RISK THROUGH THE NEXT 24HRS. A LOW FORMING IN THE SW APPROACHES WILL BEGIN TO FOCUS PRECIPITATION ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARIES ACROSS NORTHERN ENGLAND OVERNIGHT, WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT AFFECTING HERE AND THE MIDLANDS DURING MONDAY. OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND WALES, THE FORMATION OF A COLD FRONT WILL ADD HEAVY AND POSSIBLY CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED PRECIPITATION TO AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY AND WILL CONTINUE TO SEE PERSISTENT LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN RATES. STRONGER WINDS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THIS DURING THE EARLY HOURS MAY ALSO SERVE TO ENHANCE ACCUMULATIONS OVER HIGH GROUND. FLASH FLOODING AND EXCESS SURFACE WATER MAY BECOME RISKS OVER THE WHOLE WATCH AREA, WHILE RIVER FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE AROUND THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WATCH MAY BE UPGRADED. PLEASE MONITOR WEATHER AND TRAVEL INFO AS NECESSARY. SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED AND SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT ALL FACTORS EXCEEDING ACTIVATION CRITERIA. **** alerts contd below **** SKYWARN UK SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #029 ISSUED: 2230UTC SATURDAY 3RD AUGUST 2013 SKYWARN UK FORECASTS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER AS FOLLOWS: HEAVY RAIN LEADING TO A RISK OF LOCALISED FLOODING - WALES & NORTHERN ENGLAND STRONG, POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS - WALES & NORTHERN ENGLAND LARGE, POTENTIALLY DAMAGING HAIL - NORTH WALES & NORTHWEST ENGLAND BRIEF POTENTIALLY DAMAGING TORNADOES - NORTH WALES & NORTHWEST ENGLAND IN EFFECT FROM 1200UTC UNTIL 2300UTC SUNDAY 4TH AUGUST 2013 WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG FRONTAL ZONE UNDER ONCOMING JETSTREAM, FOCUSSING SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL DISCUSSION: THERE IS STRONG MODEL AND PARTNER AGENCY CONFIDENCE IN THE POTENTIAL FOR A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK THROUGH SUNDAY IN THE AREAS SPECIFIED. A FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT DUE TO THE ONCOMING NOSE OF THE JET WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR MODERATE INSTABILITY AND DEEP MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. ALONG WITH SUBSTANTIAL HELICITY GIVEN VEERING WINDS AHEAD OF THE WAVE, THERE IS SCOPE FOR WELL-ORGANISED CONVECTION WITHIN A CLUSTER MOVING UP THE IRISH SEA INTO WALES AND NORTHERN ENGLAND, PERHAPS ISOLATED SUPERCELLS. AS A RESULT LARGE HAIL, STRONG GUSTS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. HIGH RAIN RATES WITHIN MATURE STORMS, ALONG WITH SUBSEQUENT CONVECTION ALONG THE TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY, WILL ALSO POSE A FLASH FLOOD RISK INTO THE EVENING. THIS WATCH MAY BE UPGRADED. PLEASE MONITOR WEATHER AND TRAVEL INFO AS NECESSARY. SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED AND SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT ALL FACTORS EXCEEDING ACTIVATION CRITERIA.
Posted on: Sun, 04 Aug 2013 22:10:29 +0000
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