.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY A FRONT WAS MOVING INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS THIS MORNING. MOVEMENT OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS HAS BEEN SLOW BUT WITH UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY AS THE DAY GOES ON...THE FRONT SHOULD PICK UP SOME SPEED AS IT BEGINS TO MOVE SOUTH. EXPECT THE FRONT WILL BE IN SOUTHERN ARKANSAS BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH FOCUS FOR SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION AND COVERAGE IS TOO LOW AT THIS POINT TO GO ANY HIGHER THAN 20 PERCENT FOR THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE DRY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES LIMITED TO AROUND 90 DEGREES FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS WHICH...WHEN COMBINED WITH DRIER POST-FRONTAL AIR...SHOULD MAKE FOR MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE AFTERNOONS. THE FORECAST HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND IS SOMEWHAT OF A DIFFICULT ONE. THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF AMPLIFYING FROM THIS AFTERNOON ONWARD...WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS AND TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN SEABOARD. THE RESULTING NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP ARKANSAS DRY AND COOLER THAN NORMAL. IN THE MEANTIME...THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL PINCH OFF INTO A CLOSED LOW WHICH WILL THEN RETROGRADE WESTWARD TOWARDS ARKANSAS AND MISSOURI. MODELS HAVE BEEN IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS IN SHOWING THIS FEATURE...THOUGH HAVE DIFFERED SIGNIFICANTLY IN PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THE EVENTUAL CUTOFF LOW. AS IT STANDS CURRENT MODEL RUNS KEEP THE CUTOFF LOW FAR ENOUGH EAST OF ARKANSAS AS TO SHOW NO INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS IT APPROACHES. HAVE DRY CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AS A RESULT BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THERE WERE SOME RAIN IN THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE BY SUN AFTERNOON DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK AND SPEED OF THE RETROGRADING CUTOFF LOW. &&
Posted on: Thu, 11 Jul 2013 10:59:53 +0000
Trending Topics
Recently Viewed Topics
© 2015