Steve signing in at 8:59 AM. Skies are partly to mostly cloudy across the 4 county area with temperatures in the low 70s. Burke Weather HQ in Valdese reports 71.4°. A remnant circulation from an area of organized thunderstorms that was in southern Indiana 12 hours ago triggered a line of thunderstorms over the foothills about 3 hours ago. That line is now well east of us, located from Lancaster SC to Danville VA. I expect some clearing for the rest of the morning into the afternoon with temperatures rebounding into the low 90s this afternoon along with high humidities and southwesterly winds. There is another thunderstorm complex over Kentucky and Indiana but it appears this one will miss us to the north and right now it is on a weakening trend. Ahead of an abnormally strong cold front, more thunderstorms are likely to develop out ahead of the front this afternoon. The Storm Prediction Center places an area no more than 50 or 60 miles to our north in a moderate risk for severe storms, including damaging wind, hail and tornadoes, some possibly strong. Were in an enhanced slight risk area with a threat of damaging wind, hail, and possibly an isolated tornado or two. Heres how I see this playing out. Supercell thunderstorms should develop along the Ohio River along the KY/OH/WV borders this afternoon. One complex of storms heads off to the east affecting the DC/MD/VA areas later today. The second complex, and the one we need to be concerned with, back builds off the first complex across eastern and central Kentucky. Initially these should be individual storms or clusters of storms, hence the tornado threat. As we head into the evening, these storms will begin to grow into a broken to solid line that is scheduled to move into our area between 10 PM tonight and 3 AM Monday morning. It appears that once the line moves south of the I-40 corridor it will begin to weaken. Thus, contrary to a normal situation here where storms strengthen once they approach the Charlotte area and the SC upstate, this time they will weaken and Charlotte may not get anything at all. The greatest severe threat including widespread damaging winds and isolated tornados appears to be in the mountains, including northwestern Mcdowell, Burke and the northern half of Caldwell Counties. A lesser, but still significant threat exists along the I-40 corridor. What could go wrong? Something that concerns me is that the SPC shifted the Moderate Risk area about 100 miles south of where it was yesterday, in our direction. It is possible that areas farther to our north may see enough thunderstorm activity to work the atmosphere over and the area of greatest instability and wind shear and severe thunderstorm threat could move even farther south into western NC. On the other hand, if the outflows from upstream thunderstorm complexes trigger storms this afternoon over our area, then they will work our atmosphere over, possibly lessening the impact of tonights event. The forecast models make this look like a cleaner scenario than it appears to be on radar and satellite. At any rate, there is the chance for severe thunderstorms later this evening into the early morning hours of Monday. After that, the cold front punches through and we should see better weather Monday with much cooler temperatures arriving Tuesday through the end of the week. Highs should be around 80° along the I-40 corridor during the day, lows around 60°. By Thursday and Friday, in the return flow around this abnormally strong high pressure system, the chances for showers and thunderstorms increase again.
Posted on: Sun, 27 Jul 2014 13:24:03 +0000
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