THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 1 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...TORNADO RISK CONTINUES WITHIN WW 1...GREATEST OVER E-CNTRL/SERN MS. THIS RISK ALONG WITH EXPECTED INTENSIFICATION OF A FRONTAL SQUALL LINE IN CNTRL MS SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP INTO PARTS OF WRN AL BY 23Z. A DOWNSTREAM TORNADO WATCH ISSUANCE IS LIKELY BY 22Z. DISCUSSION...A PAIR OF SUPERCELLS CENTERED OVER COVINGTON/SMITH AND JASPER COUNTY MS REMAIN IN THE MOST FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC/KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT AS ALLUDED TO IN MCD 0011. DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE IN WRN AL WITH 67 DEG F DEW POINTS NEAR THE MS/AL BORDER. ALTHOUGH BUOYANCY/INSTABILITY WILL BE LESSER RELATIVE TO FARTHER S/SW...PRESENCE OF 200-300 M2/S2 0-1 KM SRH WILL SUPPORT PERSISTENCE OF UPDRAFT ROTATION. AMALGAMATION OF UPDRAFTS WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL TSTM CLUSTER AND THE QLCS ALONG THE EFFECTIVE COLD FRONT SHOULD YIELD AN INCREASINGLY MESSY CONVECTIVE MODE WHICH MAY LIMIT TEMPORAL SUSTENANCE OF INDIVIDUAL SUPERCELL UPDRAFTS DURING THE EVENING.
Posted on: Sat, 03 Jan 2015 21:18:19 +0000
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