Thoughts on continued developments in the Crimea: 1. Russia is actually in a pretty weak position. Last nights events revealed they were unwilling to open fire on unarmed Ukrainian soldiers advancing on their positions, have very poor communications (compromised as well) with their higher echelons and incompetent leadership. Moreover, organized crime (heavily armed) in the Crimea have sided with Ukraine and are actively disrupting Russian communications (and allegedly executed a captured FSB officer). The Russian position is so tenuous that they are employing armed Russian civilians to intimidate the Ukrainian military in a bizarre role reversal. The Tartars are evidently receiving arms and money to lay the ground for an insurgency in the event the Russians dont leave. 2. Economically, the Russians stepped in it. Not only is their own economy already suffering from the opening measures employed by the US and EU, but Ukraines is growing stronger with the various aid packages, debt forgiveness and cash infusions offered by the US and EU. Russias economy has always been fragile and it will be wrecked if this continues. 3. Putin is severely undermining his position domestically. As the economy worsens, and matters grow worse on the ground in Crimea, he will face growing opposition. Whether he realizes this or not is a matter of debate. Chancellor Merkel noted to Obama that Putin had lost his mind. His press conference last night did nothing to disprove Merkels observation. 4. What could happen in the future: Putin is being backed into a corner. This is could be dangerous as he may lash out to save face. Hopefully though, hell cut his losses once he recognizes the situation would be too costly to continue. Thanks to John Laue for the valuable intelligence collecting.
Posted on: Wed, 05 Mar 2014 01:16:14 +0000
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