USD/JPY: H4. Core Retail Sales. Good afternoon, dear traders. We keep watching the USD/JPY behavior. This financial instrument is convenient to analyze during the American and European trading sessions, since the behavior of the currency pair at this time is a subject to the influence of fundamental news, exclusively from the U.S.. For example, today at 13:30 (CET) we will see two key indicators at once: Retail Sales (Core Retail Sales) and initial jobless claims (Unemployment Claims) for last week. We believe that the impact of retail sales will be more significant because this figure is published on the monthly data basis and does not include a volatile component of the automotive industry. This indicator measures consumer confidence and activity in domestic demand. If its growth turns out less than 0.2%, we would expect the weakening of the U.S. currency. The Yen continues its downward movement confirming the downward H4 channel. The characteristic fact is that the resistance line coincides with the Pivot signal line. This means that the likelihood is high that the price will continue to move below the signal line which can be used for risk limitation. We believe that additional evidence of the downward momentum should be expected from the RSI-Bars which can preliminary violate the support level at 39.510. It is recommended to place a pending sell order below the local minimum at 102.240. We place orders 15 minutes before the Core Retail Sales publication and keep them in case the macroeconomic indicator is below 0.2%. The target is estimated according to the Fibonacci levels. Target clarification is based on the nearest resistance which often acts as a support level in case of breakthrough upwards. The specified level in the current situation is around 102.240. Traditionally, the author recommends to move the stop loss after the ParabolicSAR as soon as it crosses the advanced level of risk limitation at 102.822 . Direction:down Position opening:below 102,240 Target:above 101.939 Preliminary stop:above 102.822
Posted on: Thu, 13 Mar 2014 10:20:39 +0000
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