Unity in the Balance” authored for the United States Army War College has, again, warned Nigerian leaders to beware of another civil war or an outright break-up following what it called ongoing divisive trends in the country. The report released by the Strategic Studies Institute of War College was written by two former American servicemen, Gerald McLaughlin and Clarence J. Bouchat. McLaughlin is a graduate of the U.S. Army War College while Bouchat is also an adjunct p ``Nigerian rofessor at the U.S. Army War College (USAWC) The report, whose foreword was written by the Director, Strategic Studies, Institute and U.S. Army War College Press, Professor Douglas Lovelace, observed that divisive forces were becoming more stronger than uniting forces in Nigeria, warning that unless this was reversed, Nigeria`s existence could be jeopardised. According to the report, “Parochial interests created by religious, cultural, ethnic, economic, regional, and political secessionist tendencies are endemic in Nigeria. Under such stresses, Nigerian unity may fail. “Should Nigeria’s leaders mismanage the political economy and reinforce centrifugal forces in Nigeria, the breaks to create autonomous regions or independent countries would likely occur along its previously identified fault lines,” the report warned. “Having already experienced one brutal civil war, Nigeria is at risk for a recurrence of conflict or dissolution, especially since some of the underpinning motivations of the war remain unresolved,`` the report observed, detailing many fault lines speeding up disintegrative tendencies in the country. “Indeed, East Timor, Eritrea, Croatia, and Somaliland indicate that the weakest point of failing states is along colonial borders. Of more interest for Nigerian unity is that this may also occur between regions separately administered by a common colonial power, as occurred between Malaysia and Singapore, and North and South Sudan, where differences proved irreconcilable after the departure of British administration. At least, some of the resulting regions and states of a possible Nigerian devolution may divide along such internal lines”, the report projected. While conceding that Nigeria’s fate is primarily in the hands of Nigerians, the report noted that such could be positively affected by actions of the US, adding that “Nigeria’s future is in balance and the United States should help tip the scales.” The report particularly warned that religious differences were taking the centre-stage in the emerging conflict situation in the country, disputing repeated reports that economic reasons were to blame for the insurgency and other conflicts in the country. The Strategic Studies Institute (SSI) is part of the U.S. Army War College and is the strategic-level study agent for issues related to national security and military strategy with emphasis on geostrategic analysis . Arms stockpile: North prepares for war over 2015? President Goodluck Jonathan and General Muhammadu Buhari RECENT discoveries and interception of arms and ammunition in some parts of northern Nigeria has raised fears and alarm in security and southern political circles as to the goals of the forces behind the smuggling of arms. While similar arm discoveries had happened in some southern states in recent past, the frequency of such discoveries in the North in recent days has reportedly increased the level of intelligence shadowing and surveillance in the area. As insurgency remains a major headache in the Northeastern part of the country, the growing cases of arm stockpile in the North-West states are said to be giving security analysts sleepless nights, especially as clues as to the motives of the masterminds are yet unclear. As of the time of filing this report, security agencies are said to be focusing on both local and external sources in their bid to unravel the sudden surge in the trafficking menace. Sunday Tribune was told that the initial suspicion was that the importation of arms was due to transnational islamist terrorists arming local jihadists, as well as using Nigeria as a transit route in the Sahel arms and related smuggling trade. This line of thought was reported to be the main preoccupation of the security agencies for sometime until in the last one month when political motivation reportedly entered the review process. While analysts are yet to find direct linkage between political actors and the arm storage and smuggling, there are fears that threats from key leaders suggest a zone preparing for war depending on the outcome of the 2015 race. An insider told Sunday Tribune that the intensity of arm stockpiles correlates with the heightening of tension and mounting attacks on the presidency by political opposition and political dissenters within the ruling party. It will be recalled that the arm cache found in Kano is still a mystery despite the ongoing prosecution of the Lebanese involved in the entire saga. The security agencies are also said to be at a loss over what alleged Hezbollah Shiite agents will be doing with the Sunni-led Boko Haramists on the arms stockpile. Boko Haram is said to belong to the Sunni school of Islam, attributing a link between them and the Lebanese under trial over the arms cache is said to be proving very difficult among intelligence analysts in the country. Though it is being suggested that the Shiite group could have its own separate mission in the country. The Kano arms discovery, therefore, is reported to have given rise to many theories, one of such is the possibility of a non-religious involvement, with political undertone being the chief reason. This theory was said to have gained ground after the Zamfara State government got embroiled in an arm importation controversy, claiming it wanted to arm vigilance groups in the state. The way and manner the state government imported the arms allegedly without police approval had since become a subject of investigation which is said to be attracting attention of many within the security circles. A security official confessed under the condition of anonymity that importation of arm without prior approval is a violation of the law. Said he: “for a state government to have done that, it is a matter to be taken seriously”. Though the Zamfara State government had since justified its action on the need to combat criminal gangs operating freely in the state, keen watchers of the 2015 drama, however, pointed out that arming vigilantes in the countdown to 2015 sent mixed signals. Many people believed that once Zamafara succeeded on this matter, other state governments would follow suit, leading to proliferation of arms in the country and a potentially explosive electoral year in 2015. While the controversy over Zamfara arm importation is still boiling, a tanker filled with assorted arms and ammunition was impounded between Kebbi-Zamafara axis with the source of the importation still unknown. With hundreds of such tankers in remote parts of northwestern Nigeria, fears are spreading that there may be a deliberate programme to acquire arms by some unknown elements in the northern parts of the country ahead of 2015 elections. Four days after the tanker was impounded, another arm cache was discovered in the sleepy state of Jigawa with exchange of fire between security agencies and those described as Boko Haram operatives. Security analysts, however, faulted the reference to Boko Haram, as Jigawa has never witnessed any Boko Haram attack since the insurgency started. Others claimed the exchange of fire did not explain the owner of the arms or who masterminded their stockpile in the state. Another source told Sunday Tribune of the fear being nursed in that sector, saying “the situation is scary. We cannot say for sure that all these arms are imported by islamists. We cannot prove that. We can also not prove that politicians are behind the caches of arms for electoral purposes. All what we know for sure is that there is an arms build-up in the core North”, the security, a security official, said. While the real motive behind the huge arms stockpile is still under investigation by security agencies, the statement credited to the Chief of Staff to the President, Chief Mike Oghiadohme, warning against civil war is cited by other analysts to argue that the presidency already has more facts over security situation in the country and, particularly, about arms build-up in northern part of the country than it is letting out. Oghiadohme had called attention to the tragedy of the last civil war, warning that leaders and elders should beware of actions and utterances capable of plunging the nation into another conflict.
Posted on: Fri, 06 Sep 2013 22:02:17 +0000
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