WHY ARENT ALL ABOARD FLORIDAS RIDERSHIP STUDIES MADE PUBLIC? What is the secret – AAF is not competing with anyone. How do you design a rail system if you dont know how many people will ride it? It drives everything – how many tracks, how many parking spots, how many everything... All Aboard Florida has made many promises to Floridians, but hardly any of them stand up to critical analysis. There are many concerned citizens living in towns along the tracks who deserve answers. How will AAF compensate for their costs, particularly if ridership is not met? Harry Bruce suggests that they may turn to building real estate and other infrastructure in the area to earn money. We believe that in order to make sensible real estate decisions it must first be determined that ridership will be strong. According to the information stated, we do not believe that AAF will meet its ridership explanations nor do we believe it has the possibility of being profitable on its own. 1) On its website FAQs, AAF claims it’s prices “will be competitive with other current modes of travel” (bit.ly/1sbr1S6). However, we believe Florida’s travelers are not likely to choose AAF as the most convenient, time-effective, or financially intelligent option. Cost + Time Summary: Car: $41/carload (multiple passengers), 3hr 30min Car Rental: $36/1 day/carload (multiple passengers), 3hr 30min. Bus: $24/person, 3hr 50min Plane: $54, $152-$300/person, 1hr AAF: $85/person, 3hr Car: According to 2014 FuelEconomy.gov average car mpg; the average gas price is $3.50/gallon. According to Google Maps Directions, driving from Miami International Airport to Orlando International Airport takes 231-233 miles, lasting between 3hr 20 min and 3hr 37 min. A 2009 Project.org article cites the Department of Transportation estimated that the average mile per gallon for passenger cars was 22.4 mpg and 18 mpg for SUVs (bit.ly/1uMzk5y). Dividing 233 miles by an average of these two (20 mpg) equals 11.65 gallons, multiplied by $3.50 equals a $40.77 total for a car trip one-way. The $41 would cover the traveling costs for as many people as a car can hold. Total Estimation: $41/carload (multiple passengers), 3hr 30min Car Rental: When searching for a car rental starting at the Miami Airport on rentalcars one week in advance, prices ranged between $6.79-$20 out of the first 50 options listed, and 14 car rental options were $10 and under per day. The price of gas for a trip between Miami and Orlando calculated in our car example is $26/carload (multiple passengers) and 3hr 30min average time. Therefore, a car rental traveling the distance of AAF could cost $26 + $10 = $36. Total Estimation: $36/1 day/carload (multiple passengers), 3hr 30min. Bus: According to the Miami-Orlando Express Smart Shuttle Line, Inc., a trip from the Miami International Airport to Orlando costs $24 one-way/per person and $20 when booked at least 7 days in advance. The shuttle service also travels to Disney World, Orlando Area Hotels, and Universal Studios for an additional $15. Their trip between the Miami Airport and Orlando lasts 3hr 50min. (Source: bit.ly/1uli6Kc) Total Estimation: $24/person, 3hr 50min Plane: A OneTravel search revealed that a flight from Miami to Orlando (booked 12 days ahead of time) could cost $54 or $152-$300. The time spent on trips without layovers ranged averaged 1hr. (Source: bit.ly/1r7TxSd) Total Estimation: $54, $152-$300/person, 1hr Train: According to a report from TCPalm, a private prospectus disclosed information regarding AAF’s top-secret ticket costs. A coach ticket for a trip between Miami and West Palm Beach was estimated at $23.77 in 2016 which is expected to increase to $25.23 by 2019, and business class tickets could cost $29.95 (bit.ly/1mnZF8Q). Frank Cerabino, Metro columnist for The Palm Beach Post, explains that according to the ridership survey released, the ticket price between Miami and Orlando is likely to be $85/person one-way (bit.ly/1pmfaZG). According to its website FAQs, AAF’s HSR trip between Miami and Orlando would last “approximately three hours” (bit.ly/1sbr1S6). Total Estimation: $85/person, 3hr Taxi vs. Parking A car or rental car would require parking prices, but each alternative would involve taxi or bus charges. Travelers must move from the train/bus/etc. stop to their desired location, and they must have transportation to help them get from place to place in Orlando. According to Disneyworld.disney.go, it costs $17 for a pass that supports parking at any of the theme parks for one day (bit.ly/1sUNLQL). By contrast, here are some taxi price estimations in Orlando FL by taxifarefinder (bit.ly/1wFJiVM): Orlando International Airport (MCO) to Port Canaveral: $115.34 Orlando International Airport (MCO) to Universal Studios: $47.32 Orlando International Airport (MCO) to Downtown Disney: $56.37 Orlando International Airport (MCO) to Sea World / Discovery: $41.30 Orlando International Airport (MCO) to Magic Kingdom: $64.80 Orlando International Airport (MCO) to International Drive: $39.16 Downtown Disney to Universal Studios: $33.41 Magic Kingdom to Universal Studios: $45.95 Downtown Disney to Sea World / Discovery: $21.11 Epcot Center to Universal Studios: $40.30 Orlando International Airport (MCO) to Convention Center: $41.17 Orlando International Airport (MCO) to Epcot Center: $59.86 Orlando International Airport (MCO) to Downtown - Orlando: $41.30 Orlando International Airport, Orlando, FL, United States to Walt Disney World Resort, Lake Buena Vista, FL, United States: $60.57 Walt Disney World Resort, Lake Buena Vista, FL, United States to Universal Orlando Resort, Universal Boulevard, Orlando, FL, United States: $41.45 Overall Evaluation: • A car trip lasts about 30 min longer than a train trip. Therefore, anyone who travels 30 min or longer to get to the train station would not be saving any time by riding the train. • Driving a car, whether rented or owned, would involve a flat travel rate for an entire family. That entire traveling rate would be a fraction of what would be spent per person on AAF’s train. • At Disney, parking costs less than any one taxi trip in Orlando. • Cars provide flexibility of time and storage of personal items. • By calculating gas prices vs. train ticket prices alone, a family of four would save $314 by driving from Miami to Orlando. It’s likely that many families would rather take that money and spend it on meals or treats for their family vacation. 2) While just two HSR routes are profitable, many others are just barely finding other means of compensation for their costs: In his June 19th interview, Harry Bruce, Chairman of the Board, CEO & President of the Illinois Center Railroad 1980-1990, explains how Chicago’s HSR depended on support from the city’s transportation authority: In Chicago, a city population that is two times larger than the population of the four AAF cities combined, a 40 mile trip from Chicago’s loop to Olympic Fields carried passengers without any concern for delays resulting from sharing tracks with freight or any other operation. It had brand new double decker coaches, and it was regularly packed with standing room only (so it successfully maintained ridership expectations). Even then, 25 million dollars was earned, and another 25 million was needed in subsidy from the transport authority, just to break even. HSR in China (unprofitable) is supported by the government and is currently in debt, despite incentives. According to the New York Times “Speedy Trains Transform China” China’s HSR is extremely popular, and the government makes an effort to set fares a little less than half of comparable airfare in addition to other incentives. However, the Chinese Government is currently struggling with nearly $500 billion in overall rail debt. (Source: nyti.ms/1mPYbxo) HSR in Japan is successfully maintained by other investments. Even in Japan, one of the best countries for HSR because of its geography and population density, HSR is maintained by other investments. JR East is one of seven for-profit companies that own Japan’s national railways and the largest by passenger numbers. Ways that JR East stays afloat according to The Economist explains, “Why Japan’s high-speed trains are so good” (econ.st/1knmBNH): • JR East owns the entire infrastructure on the HSR route. This includes the stations, the rolling stock, and the tracks. • JR East owns the land surrounding the railways and rents it out. Nearly a third of its revenue comes from the shopping malls, blocks of offices, flats and other profitable buildings. That money is reinvested into the HSR network. • In addition to all of this, 71% of the revenue from passenger tickets at JR East comes from its conventional, slower railway. 3) In “The Real Story” the AAF website suggests that their train will be privately owned, operated, and that no federal or state grants or ongoing subsidies have been or will be requested (bit.ly/1wxO1IU). However, PolitiFact has proven that false. There is evidence to suggest that AAF has already requested government money. In the PolitiFact article, “Does the All Aboard Florida rail project get taxpayer funding?” AAF’s hypocrisy is revealed. The article verified that the state would pay for some infrastructure to benefit AAF’s project, including quiet zones and an intermodal transportation hub at the Orlando International Airport. Additionally, PolitiFact verifies that AAF may not always be a “100 percent private venture” sine it has applied for a $1.6 billion federal loan. (Source: bit.ly/YZUr94) Since AAF estimates that the HSR rail infrastructure will cost $3 billion in their FAQ’s, they are essentially asking that over one third of their costs be supported by taxpayers (bit.ly/1sbr1S6).
Posted on: Mon, 29 Sep 2014 18:57:15 +0000
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