We deal mostly in assumptions, and the more nebulous these are, the stronger the confirmation bias. Whether you go through life believing that ‘people are inherently good’ or ‘people are inherently bad’, you will find daily proof to support your case. Both parties, the philanthropists and the misanthropes, simply filter disconfirming evidence (evidence to the contrary) and focus instead on the do-gooders and dictators who support their worldviews. Astrologers and economists operate on the same principle. They utter prophecies so vague that any event can substantiate them: ‘In the coming weeks you will experience sadness,’ or ‘in the medium term, the pressure on the dollar will increase.’ But what is the medium term? What will cause the dollar to depreciate? And, depreciation measured against what – gold, yen, pesos, wheat, residential property in Manhattan, the average price of a hot dog? - The Art of Thinking Clearly, Rolf Dobelli, Thanks Lazăr Lung - (see also Thinking, Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman)
Posted on: Mon, 18 Aug 2014 06:34:47 +0000
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