Well now here is that big forecast.. First, I want to say that it has been a pleasure this Spring meeting plenty of you in person :D June Roundup: I think June played out pretty much as I expected.. It started out dreary and cool, then transitioned into that summer pattern towards the end.. I still believe it was below normal.. We also didnt hit 90 during the month of June on LI and NYC though we did come close toward the end at 88-89.. NYC finally hit 90 today.. LI is still waiting though as most of us saw mid to upper 80s.. With dewpoints in the low 70s, both will feel quite warm.. I believe that is the latest in the season it took us to see 90.. I also thought we would see a tropical system develop but strong wind shear and Saharan dust prevented it.. We finally did see our first tropical system July 1st; close but no cigar on that one.. Whats up for July: We did finally see 90 during the 1st week of July (see my June 20th post) and will maintain the current pattern for the time being.. There will be some nice low humidity/nw wind/sunny days but the heat and humidity will become more dominant as the month progresses.. Expect thunderstorms to accompany days like these.. That pattern will reign supreme during the Dog Days of Summer through most of August.. The batch of strong thunderstorms we had this evening moved out, but we will see more of them Thursday.. More heat and humidity will be present with temps in the mid to upper 80s with scattered strong tstorms.. Finally the 4th of July holiday forecast: This is the one bold prediction I hope I didnt hit :/ I regret to inform everyone that this 4th of July will suck weatherwise.. We will see rain and overcast conditions whether by a glancing blow from Arthur (more on that in a bit) or from the cold front that is expected to push Arthur NEward.. I dont even expect temps to hit 80.. Mother Nature will make up for the lousy 4th of July with another winning weather weekend (WWW).. I expect sunshine both days, lower humidity thanks to the NW wind, and temps 80-85!! So if you can schedule a raindate for your 4th of July plans, I advise you to do so.. The lowdown on Arthur: Arthur was a fighter from the beginning.. The storm fought dry air (from a continental high) and windshear from the beginning.. It only had a 20% chance of developing though a friend of mine showed me one of the models that called it.. Thanks to the lessening shear and a moistening air mass from a subtropical Bermuda High (which is generally responsible for warm/hot, humid conditions by us), our 1st (of the season) tropical depression then storm was born on July 1st.. Arthur is a decent size cyclone considering the circumstances.. He also got his act together rather quickly over the past 24 hours.. He got an eye at just 60mph with tstorms wrapping around the center creating a central dense overcast.. This is rare for tropical storms of this magnitude.. Now Arthur has a pretty low pressure for a 70mph TS at 988mb (as of 11pm EDT).. 90mph winds were also reported at flight level! All this means that Arthur is intensifying and will become a hurricane.. He is moving North at 8mph.. Whats Next for Arthur: Arthur is expected to be influenced by the jet stream and cold front that will affect us on July 4th.. Arthur will pick up some moisture and energy from the front (sometimes the opposite can happen) and will change direction.. Arthur is expected to move N, then NNE, then NE and parallel the Eastern Seaboard.. Hurricane warnings have been issued for the outer banks of NC, which is expected to get a good punch from Arthur.. The all important NorCast (what my gut says) for LI: I will be honest, the computer models have taken this storm a bit more eastward than I initially thought.. I had the storm taking a path similar to Andrea 13 last weekend.. That is a good thing for LI.. While the pros have Arthur hitting Cat 1 (74-95mph status), I think Arthur can undergo a brief period of rapid intensification if the conditions stay the same (low shear/moist air) and the eye has an extended stay over the Gulf Stream (an area of warmer water that parallels the East coast) since warmer water fuels a hurricane.. I think Arthur will be a Cat 1 hurricane by Thursday morning and I can see Arthur reaching a Cat 2 (winds 96-110mph) under these ideal conditions.. I can see the central pressure falling to 965-975mb.. Arthur can also expand in size instead.. I think that Arthur will deliver hurricane conditions to the Outer Banks then parallel the East coast like the models say.. I dont think we will see conditions that are too bad as I dont expect a direct hit for us.. I expect the southeastern side of the storm to be stronger that the northwestern side of the storm (the side that will come closest to us) as it will weaken and become ragged a bit when that part of the storm comes ashore.. Friction from land does this to hurricanes.. This is also good for LI since we will be on the weaker side of the storm.. NorEaster conditions will be worst than the NW side of Arthur at its closest approach to LI.. At worst, Suffolk or eastern Suffolk can get a tropical storm watch for the possibility of tropical storm force gusts (as opposed to sustained TS force winds).. We will see rain regardless from either a glancing Arthur blow, or from the cold front that is steering Arthur away from us and out to sea.. I dont expect much in the way of wind damage or flooding at this time.. There will be heavy surf so boating/bathing in the water is not advised.. Very minor coastal flooding (if any) and storm surge
Posted on: Thu, 03 Jul 2014 05:44:02 +0000
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