Roundabout The middle of the week falls upon us and after a few days of complete peace and quiet, tropical activity is starting to show signs of an increase a bit across the WPAC this morning. A persistent area of low pressure that has been tracking along the ITCZ for the past 9 days has consolidated enough that NRL has declared it as 91W INVEST. Ive watched this system track across the WPAC as a broad trough of low pressure, literally tumbling along slowly as it shrinks and consolidates. It finally has coalesced into a singular point of low pressure, located just to the east of the Philippines near 9N, 131E. Development into an organized tropical cyclone is not expected as this system crosses the central Philippines and emerges into the Sulu Sea. The models are taking this system through the South China Sea and across the Malay Peninsula, where it may develop as an Indian Ocean cyclone. Another curious area of low pressure is located just west of Brunei, and has remained stationary for the past 3 days. Im not sure this is a tropically-oriented system, and may just be a product of the converging winds brought on by the ITCZs interaction with the continental troughs that keep encroaching. Models are not showing much for this area in the future, and I suspect it will be absorbed into 91W INVEST as it passes to the north in a few days. 99W INVEST looks to be gaining strength to the northeast of Sri Lanka with a path towards India, but models are very conservative with this area in terms of development. Im not expecting much from this system either. Have a super-duper Wednesday!
Posted on: Wed, 12 Nov 2014 00:46:26 +0000
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