After last nights Golden Globes, I think this years Oscar race is shaping up as one of the more predictable in recent years. Best Picture will be Boyhood, and its director, Richard Linklater, Best Director (Birdman was a contender, but its loss to Grand Budapest Hotel for best comedy at the Globes does not bode well for it). Best Actress will be Julianne Moore, as she has never won despite several nominations and the field is weak. Supporting Actor: J.K. Simmons (lock), and Supporting Actress: Patricia Arquette (virtual lock). The tightest race is for Best Actor, between Michael Keaton, the sentimental favorite, in Birdman, and Eddie Redmayne, who played Stephen Hawking in The Theory of Everything. Keaton has been the oddsmakers favorite for quite some time, and is still a good bet. But I am predicting Redmayne will overtake him at the wire by a nose. Reasoning: in a close race, (1) the actor playing a mentally or physically challenged individual usually wins; and (2) the actor playing a real life person as opposed to a fictional character usually wins (I dont agree it should be that way; I think it must be harder to create a memorable character than to imitate one, but thats been the trend--think Philip Seymour Hoffman as Truman Capote; Sean Penn as Harvey Milk; Colin Firth as the King of England; Jamie Foxx as Ray Charles; and of course Daniel Day Lewis as Lincoln (richly deserved, that one).) Anyway those are my predictions. Oscar has a way of proving the experts wrong, though, so I stand to be corrected . . . Feel free to chime in with your own picks, and tune in February 22 to see who was right!
Posted on: Mon, 12 Jan 2015 16:31:23 +0000
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