FXUS62 KMLB 151943 AFDMLB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 343 PM EDT THU AUG 15 2013 .DISCUSSION... A COMBINATION OF DRY AIR ACROSS OUR NORTHERN SECTIONS AND MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS OVER OUR SOUTHERN SECTIONS HAS HELPED TO SQUASH CONVECTIVE INITIATION...FOR NOW. AMPLE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY STREAM NORTHWARD AND THE FIRST HINTS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE STARTING TO APPEAR ON RADAR AS OF 3 PM. EXPECT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO INCREASE THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND DUE TO THE LATE START...EXPECT A FEW STORMS TO LAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT. AMPLE MOISTURE IN THE MID AND HIGH LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVERHEAD OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY...LEADING TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WHILE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE MOISTENED BY FRIDAY...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MAY ONCE AGAIN DELAY THE ONSET OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. H85-H50 STEERING WINDS SHOULD REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY...KEEPING WHATEVER CONVECTION THAT DOES FORM ON OUR SIDE OF THE COAST. HEAVY RAINS THE MAIN CONCERN AS H50 TEMPS REMAIN AROUND -6C AND LAPSE RATES REMAIN WEAK. UPDATED PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SAT-SAT NIGHT... ATLC RIDGE AXIS EXPECTED TO LIFT BACK TO THE N AS THE FRONTAL TROF DAMPENS OUT AND THE T-WAVE PUSHES INTO THE WRN GOMEX. S/SERLY FLOW WILL DVLP THAT WILL PULL A SLIGHTLY DRYER H100-H70 AIRMASS FROM THE N CENTRAL CARIB INTO THE FL PENINSULA. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE NEAR SATURATION ABV H50...BUT OVERALL PWAT VALUES DIMINISHING TO 1.7"-1.8" BY AFTN. THE DIMINISHING LOW LVL MOISTURE AND HIGH MID/UPR LVL MOISTURE WILL ACT TO SUPPRESS OVERALL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AS CLOUD DECKS ABV H70 TEND TO LIMIT SFC HEATING. ADD IN THE FACT THAT WINDS THRU THE COLUMN WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE S/SE AS THE RIDGE BUILDS NWD...AND PRECIP COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH BLO 50PCT WITH HIGHEST COVERAGE SHIFTING TO THE INTERIOR. SUN-WED... THE ATLC RIDGE WILL REPOSITION ITSELF OVER THE DEEP SOUTH BY THE START OF NEXT WEEK AS THE H30-H20 JET MAX PULLS OFF THE ERN SEABOARD AND THE WEAKENING FRONTAL TROF LIFTS N IN ITS WAKE. WITH THE AXIS POSITIONED N OF FL...A DEEP ERLY FLOW PATTERN WILL DVLP THAT WILL FOCUS DIURNAL CONVECTION OVER THE W HALF OF THE FL PENINSULA. OTHER THAN 50 POPS N OF I-4 ON SUN TO ACCOUNT FOR LINGERING MOISTURE WORKING ITS WAY ACRS CENTRAL FL...WILL KEEP POPS AT 30-40PCT FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS WITHIN A DEG OR TWO OF CLIMO AVG...MIN TEMPS 3-5F ABV AVG. && .AVIATION... LATER START TO CONVECTION THAN INITIALLY THOUGHT. PUSHED BACK TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST SITES. TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS CENTERED ON 1521/1601 FOR NOW. MAINLY VFR OVERNIGHT BEFORE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS AFFECT OUR TERMINALS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS...LESS THAN 10 KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTH. .MARINE... LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS OVERNIGHT WITH OFFSHORE MOVING SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS EVENING. SEAS REMAIN UNDER 3 FEET. OFFSHORE MOVING STORMS LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE. SURFACE RIDGE EXPECTED TO LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH ON SATURDAY...LEADING TO A GENTLE SERLY BREEZE WITH SEAS 2-3FT. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY...GENERALLY AVERAGING 10-15 KNOTS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 74 88 74 90 / 50 70 40 40 MCO 75 91 74 92 / 50 60 30 40 MLB 74 87 75 90 / 40 60 30 30 VRB 72 89 73 90 / 50 50 20 30 LEE 76 88 75 93 / 50 60 40 40 SFB 76 89 75 93 / 50 60 40 40 ORL 75 90 76 93 / 50 60 30 40 FPR 71 88 73 89 / 50 50 20 30 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM/AVIATION...ULRICH RADAR/IMPACT WX....KELLY PALMBAYWEATHER.info
Posted on: Thu, 15 Aug 2013 19:43:26 +0000
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