Jonathan And The Tough Road To 2015 Via LEADERSHIP Going by recent political trends concerning the 2015 Presidential contest, President Goodluck Jonathan is set to face the toughest battle of his political life This is against the backdrop of growing appeal of the president’s main challenger Gen Muhammadu Buhari. EDEGBE ODEMWINGIE writes Former military leader, Gen. Muhammadu Buhari faces President Goodluck Jonathan, the ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) flagbearer in a February 14 election that monitors think may be too close to call. “I am not a rich person, I can’t give you a pocketful of dollars or naira to purchase your support… I want a Nigeria … where corruption no longer trespasses into our institutions and national behaviour.” Buhari told opposition delegates hours before he emerged as presidential candidate of Nigeria’s main opposition party, the All Progressive Congress (APC). Reuters in a December 17 report say Buhari’s words struck a chord with Nigerians fed up with leaders filling their pockets. They also highlight his main selling point: during his previous stint in power from 1983-85. He is widely believed to have kept his fingers out of the till, the international news agency reported. Buhari (aged 72) has been described as the “masses’ friend, elites nemesis”. He is feared by the elite over his likely crackdown on corruption and waste in government. Buhari arguably has the largest street support in northern Nigeria. Buhari is also increasingly perceived as a military strongman capable of quelling the Islamist insurgency that has ravaged large swathes of the country’s north. In 1980, Buhari defeated an extremist insurgency, the Maitatsine a religious uprising in Kano when President Shehu Shagari was in power. There are the downsides. As former military leader, his crackdown on press freedom and detaining political opponents without charge was well reported. The 2011 post-election violence that followed the announcement of presidential election results which Buhari lost is another sore point. Murderous thugs reportedly loyal to Buhari invaded many northern cities, maiming and killing hundreds over perceived rigged votes. Many blame Buhari for his seeming inaction. Again, he is perceived as a religious fundamentalist and northern irredentist, perceptions that have not been proven. For now, Buhari is already proving a divisive figure in the upcoming election which will be defined largely by ethnic and religious sentiments. It’s a case of either liking him or otherwise. VPs Jonathan, a Christian from the South retained his vice, Namadi Sambo, a northern Muslim as running mate. Buhari, a northern Muslim on his part picked a southern Christian lawyer, Prof. Yemi Osibajo to be his running mate. Coincidentally, Osinbajo SAN is a high-ranking pastor in Nigeria’s largest church (14,000 branches/5 million members), the Redeemed Christain Church of God (RCCG), the same church Jonathan recently knelt down for prayers over his political future. Well, RCCG’s General Overseer, the respected Pastor Enoch Adeboye has denied that the church endorsed Osinbajo’s VP candidacy. Adeboye, while reacting to the subtle endorsement by a Twitter handle: @rccgworldwide, presumed to be the official Twitter handle of the RCCG, denounced the page. If it helps, Jonathan regularly hobnobs with the President of the Christian Association of Nigeria (CAN), Ayo Oritsejafor. CAN is the umbrella body for all churches in Nigeria. On the other hand, Sambo, an architect by training, has been tagged a political liability to Jonathan after failing to get votes in 2011 in his home state, Kaduna. He has also been unable to attract political patronage from northern leaders for the Jonathan administration. The choice of a Christian/Muslim and a North/South ticket by the APC and PDP fits a common pattern in the country’s elections, of trying to balance ethnic and religious sentiments to maximize appeal to voters. The emergence of the APC has presented Nigeria with its first true and potent opposition party since the country returned to civilian rule in 1999. Monitors submit that the presidential election in February, 2015 is no doubt the best opportunity for the APC to clinch the coveted post of the presidency in Nigeria. Lost charm “I am Goodluck Jonathan. I never thought I would be where I am today. I had no shoes, no school bag; I carried my books in my hands to school. I have no enemies to fight. I was not born rich. I am Goodluck Jonathan. If I can make it, you can make it.” President Jonathan the flagbearer of the ruling PDP declared in what was perhaps, his most riveting campaign message in the lead-up to the 2011 presidential election in which he defeated his closest challenger, Buhari to occupy Aso Rock. Fast forward 2014, clearly, that popular, frenzied and somewhat widespread acceptance has escaped Jonathan. The perception in some quarters is that the present administration and the PDP that has been in power since 1999 has run the country into the ground. The reasons are glaring. Brazen corruption; widespread insecurity and a worsening insurgency in the country’s north are problems Nigerians have been left to grapple with. The situation has resulted in a widespread yearning for an alternative, in this case APC. On the other hand, Jonathan has continued to suffer heavy political setbacks in the leadup to the elections. Many of his henchmen – lawmakers, ministers and political aides – failed in their bids to get crucial PDP tickets to contest several elective positions. In results from PDP governorship primaries, Jonathan’s ministers, Emeka Wogu (Abia), Labaran Maku (Nasarawa), Onyebuchi Chukwu (Ebonyi), Musiliu Obanikoro (Lagos), Elder Peter Godsday Orubebe (Delta) and Samuel Ortom (Benue) all lost out. Ten former ministers had, at various times, left the Jonathan cabinet to contest governorship positions in their state. Apart from the prior mentioned, they are Dr. Mohammed Ali Pate (Bauchi), Yerima Lawal Ngama (Yobe), Nyesom Wike (Rivers), Darius Ishaku (Taraba). The case is the same in the National Assembly. A combination of political machinations by state governors, rotational arrangements and sundry reasons accounted for the failed return bids of the lawmakers, many of them Jonathan’s loyalists. The development has resulted in bad blood and apathy in the PDP. In the aftermath of the PDP primaries, members that lost out have left for the APC in droves. Voting patterns On paper, there is a real possibility of President Jonathan being a one-term president. By political calculations, it will be difficult for any presidential candidate to win any election without bagging 25 per cent of the votes in any two of Kano, Lagos and Rivers, the three states now safely in the pouch of the APC. According to 2011 records of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), the three states account for 13.7 million votes, about 25 per cent of total number of registered voters in the country. At the state level, even though the PDP is still in control of 18 out of the 36 states of the federation, the APC now controls a close 16 states. These calculations will prove a major decider when Nigerians go to the ballots in February 2015. With Nigerian governors in firm grip of their respective states, they determine the political direction of not just their respective states but the country. They possess overwhelming powers to swing votes to candidates of their choice, evident in past presidential elections. For the insurgency-wracked North East, INEC has severally expressed doubt about holding elections there if the insecurity persist. That situation will be a big blow to the APC. Buhari, a Muslim northerner, will get majority votes in the North West and North East geo-political zones, where he’s hugely popular. Jonathan is expected to sweep much of the overwhelmingly Christian South South and South East — home to the oil producing Niger Delta region. The religiously-mixed North Central is also expected to vote Jonathan. Votes from the 50-50 split Christian-Muslim Yoruba South West will be a shared (predictably evenly) between both candidates. Even though the region overwhelmingly voted Jonathan in the last elections, things have changed with the APC’s adoption of Buhari and the perceived failings of the Jonathan administration. Matter of luck For Jonathan, many have described his ascent to power as accidental — or simply a matter of luck. Agence France-Presse in a November 11 report, “Goodluck Jonathan: Nigeria’s ‘fortunate’ leader” submitted that Jonathan has repeatedly defied expectations in his rise through the country’s ruthless political world. The mild-mannered Jonathan, a southern Christian (aged 56) is the first head of state from the oil-producing Niger Delta. He was thrust into the presidency in 2010 following the death of his predecessor Umaru Musa Yar’Adua, a Muslim from the north. In August 2012, Jonathan claimed he was the world’s most criticised president. He vowed to become the most praised before he leaves office. Within four years, Jonathan has built 125 Almajiri Schools in 13 states in the North. Jonathan went on to establish ten new federal universities. Again, the Jonathan administration has more than doubled the budgetary allocation to education in the country. With the drastic reduction of the petroleum subsidy in 2012, the government created the Subsidy Reinvestment and Empowerment Programme (SURE-P). This is designed to invest the savings accruing from the subsidy reduction in critical infrastructure and human-resource empowerment projects across the length and breadth of the country. SURE-P has engaged in a number of critical infrastructure and human-resource empowerment projects across the length and breadth of the country. The railway system in Nigeria had been comatose for over 30 years. However, the Jonathan administration has managed to revive this within two years. Jonathan’s revolution of the agriculture and power sector has been reported extensively. This year, Nigeria under Jonathan overtook South Africa as the biggest economy in Africa. Well, Jonathan is incumbent and many bookmakers will be placing their bets on him to succeed in his re-election bid, come 2015. No civilian president has lost a re-election bid in Nigeria’s history. Buhari on his part has failed in three previous attempts to emerge civilian president (2003, 2007 and 2011).
Posted on: Sun, 21 Dec 2014 20:32:32 +0000
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