Larry again: For N GA, the 12Z GFS isnt even really close with no real strong wedge setup. This is among the warmest runs in several days with all areas getting at least into the low 40s and 925s in the ATL-AHN corridor getting up to an almost balmy +8 to +9 C, which would just be a garden variety cool rain. The surface high is much weaker with only ~1035 mb vs. ~1043 mb on the 6Z GFS and ~1038 mb on the 0Z GFS. Granted, my research shows that 1035-8 mb can still be strong enough to give N GA major ZR given the right setup. However, as these runs have shown, a stronger high would certainly increase that chance. The 1043 mb of the 6Z GFS may have been an outlier run being that thats quite a bit stronger than the average NE high. Well see. If it returns, watch out!
Posted on: Mon, 03 Feb 2014 17:14:27 +0000