More storms are forecasted today around Queensland this afternoon and into the evening. I have posted 3 model predictions here all for 4PM this afternoon, the first one is the storm probability which most of you have seen in recent posts. The key for this for those we may no know are Yellow storms possible and orange shows storms likely. The second image is known as the lifted index which basically determines the amount of instability that will be around at the time, The higher the negative number the more instability there is, Anywhere from around the -3 is my chase preferences (or the darker shades of blue and purple). The 3rd image is known as Cape values also another instability guide which determines the amount of energy that s around. I prefer the 800+ J/KG (The white yellow orange red and pink areas) before start pondering a chase. Even tho the probabilities are not as good as the instability levels you cant rule out a storm with the instability values to probabilities. After all the chase last night the probabilities were there but i opted for instability values and it paid off. Sorry about dragging this post out, but lets hope the models have it right and we may see some more activity this afternoon and into the evening. On a final note these maps only provide an indication of where thunderstorms may form not the actual place located on the map. The best guide is radar which i will be scoping throughout the afternoon and hopefully I can head out for another chase. Sorry about the long write up, Now bring on the storms. Images BSCH ~Jase.
Posted on: Sat, 22 Nov 2014 01:09:16 +0000
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