OK, so...the Scottish referendum. I have no opinion on whether people should vote either way, but there are some interesting things coming out about the financials and what the Yes campaign have promised. 1 - Theyve promised to keep the pound no matter whether the UK government agree or not (there is precedent for this). 2 - Theyve threatened to renege on their debt to the UK government if they oppose Scotland keeping the pound. 3 - A bit part of the campaign relies on getting in bed with Europe. 4 - Its looking more and more like the US are going to drive oil prices down by flooding the market (in an effort to combat Russias market cap). Europe have said that if theres even a whiff of #1 or #2 happening, #3 will categorically not happen. In that case, the oil reserves are more necessary than ever, but #4 means that their value will fall through the floor. All of these things seem to come together to imply some serious economic issues for the Yes campaign. In the case where Scotland votes yes, I seriously hope that these people have a plan for how theyre going to cope with all this. If ever there were a need for a Plan B, it seems that this is it. As I understand it, theres another possibility - a yes vote doesnt mean that Scotland *must* declare its independence from the UK; it just means that they have the populations permission to do so. Therefore, it could be that everybody votes yes but the economic reality forces them to back out of the plan (albeit at the cost of the political careers of everybody involved). Or...am I wrong? Im curious, so correct me if necessary.
Posted on: Thu, 04 Sep 2014 15:34:45 +0000
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