Vladimir Zotov: Russia - Ukraine: the fruits of appeasement Widely announced the current de facto head of Ukraine and supported by the Russian leadership truce, during which killed dozens of residents of Donbass and Lugansk region, including children and pensioners, a few days ago came to an end. Poroshenko appealed to the traditions of Ukrainian chivalry, which, I think, most clearly manifested in the massacre in the village of Happiness in the Red Army, and Mariupol, and threw himself into the promised offensive. Slovyansk completely surrounded. Kramatorsk leveled with the ground. Under Lugansk Ukrainian aviation gets targeted strikes on Human Settlements, and has precisely where no militia is certainly no. The vast majority of those killed up civilians. Flow of refugees increases every day. The situation in the Donbas and Luhansk is constantly changing, so it is really something quite difficult to analyze (although many Internet experts whose existence contributed to the promotion so famous meme sofa troops, clearly believe otherwise). Nevertheless, it would be appropriate to fix a few important points that are key to further political transformations in the region. First. Happening found out full, absolute and blatant unwillingness of the Russian authorities to the current developments. One must have a true strategic genius to assume that the situation around the return of the Crimea, received initial development itself is exhausted, that simply returns the Crimea to Russia, Ukraine and all peacefully federaliziruetsya actually remain as before. Upon a complete lack of a clear political line towards insurgent Donbas, elementary failure to act in a negative scenario, led to the fact that Russia carries enormous political, economic, military, and just moral costs, the weight of which is growing day by day. The current gibberish masquerading as policy in the Ukrainian direction, perceived as weakness and lack of will and Russian society, and Western partners whose claims are becoming more radical. Recall originally partners threatened sanctions in the case of accession of Donbass, now - perhaps in an attempt to defend its interests in the gas dispute with Kiev. Absence of direct military intervention, June 24 officially recorded proposal Vladimir Putin addressed SF cancel the decision on sending troops on Ukrainian territory, in theory, should imply the implementation of measures in the field of politics and diplomacy. In circumstances where the number of civilian casualties is growing every day and the number of refugees in Russia after two months of fighting in the hundreds of thousands, we are primarily talking about the system of political pressure on the de facto authorities in present-day Ukraine. What we see here? Almost from the very beginning of the development of the Ukrainian crisis Russia has not voiced any distinct requirements. July 1, after the truce, Foreign Minister perhaps for the first time said that Moscow needs to stop the carnage unleashed Kiev. Prior to that, it all comes down to the incomprehensible statements about the need for early ceasefire, which naturally Kiev spat. Donbas continue to die a peaceful people, which Moscow has promised to protect, in response - to appeal to the OSCE, the UN inflating cheeks, creating regular contact groups and an invitation to the Russian border checkpoints Ukrainian border. Moscow simply does not know what to do, in her actions lack any hint system, it all comes down to the commonplace response and attempts to somehow delay the inevitable outcome, which can be anything, but in almost all variants extremely disadvantageous for Russia. This lack of clear, consistent strategic line and led to the current nightmare in Donbas. Kiev punishers never dared would like, if we were not confident that they have no reason to be afraid of Moscow and its actions. As a result, presently in Ukraine (Ukraine is not in the Donbass) we have the following: 1) the economic part of the EU-Ukraine Association has already been signed, under Yanukovych has indicated the desire to dissuade Kiev from this decision with literally any price has not brought any result; 2) no federation of Ukraine, against the wishes of the Kremlin is not going to become; 3) was the only official language and is Ukrainian; 4) All communications with the militia and DNR LC only possible format ultimatums. That is to say, Moscow has not reached any of the previously stated goals of its policies - and this against the background of bombing cities, killing women and children, the destruction of the infrastructure of the whole region, for which, of course, appoint West Russia. Second. Regularly voiced statements domestic guardians that Americans want to drag Russia into the war in Ukraine, and that is why Russia is in any case should not provide military assistance to New Russia, as if deliberately ignore one very simple point. The Russian border actually do go fighting. Passes through this border refugee flows, which under the current dynamics overcomes million threshold before the end of summer. Russian territory under artillery fire, flying over her Ukrainian aircraft, it calls in Ukrainian fighting vehicles. Under these conditions, transfer destabilize the territory of modern Ukraine in Russia, including in Crimea (using both Ukrainian and Crimean Tatar, and Islamist terrorist factor) - a matter of time. In fact, Russia is involved in a favorite American scenario controlled chaos, which is so like to talk Russian highbrow connoisseurs geopolitics, punctuated these arguments calls if only there was war. The war would be, and on the Russian territory. Russia in the current scenario - object prepared for her she plays the role of foreign strategic investors, and the object by definition can not rely on any political dividends. Third. Approval in the spirit of Ukraine will collapse itself give too much unjustified optimism. It is clear that life in Ukraine will become worse, but it will not be a key factor in local politics. The immediate future of this state is quite clear - the Nazi dictatorship. Yes, this dictatorship will have a number of characteristic local features - in particular, the central government will not look like a classic dictatorship. For example, it can not (and can not) control of key regions. Igor Kolomoisky already owns Dnepropetrovsk, Odessa and Zaporozhye regions. However, there is something that will unite it loose feudal oligarchic education. Natsbilding Ukrainian nation is almost completed. The main features of Ukrainians remained unchanged since the early twentieth century, but now, finally, thanks to the current historical situation, they appeared most fully. Ukrainian society today operates a request for massacres. Prohibitive, inhuman reaction of thousands of Ukrainian inhabitants of social networks on what happened in Odessa, on the destruction of civilians in Mariupol, Red Army, Kramatorsk Slovyansk - this is the most vivid expression of what a modern Ukrainian national project. If recently the political Ukrainians were divided into fiercely hate Russian and Russian Svidomo zapadentsev and ordinary citizens, just confident that Ukraine - not Russia, and that is enough to overthrow the Donetsk Mafia to return to the common European home, then today this division came to an end. All political Ukrainians - zapadentsy. Ukrainian Muscovites must hate, hate being actively and enthusiastically. Whatever weak nor was the Kiev government, no matter how pulled the blanket regional barons oligarchs, the whole structure will bind hatred. The defeat of the DNI and LC inevitably turn what might be called practical Ukrainisation - brutal massacre, repression of all dissent with the full support of the Ukrainian society. RF on current trends, can theoretically support the demands of ordinary militia disarmament in exchange for any guarantees, but the outcome of this is obvious - they are still all be killed. And it will be followed by killing millions of mocking comments on Internet forums and social networks. It is already evident that the population of Donbass at all times one said hataskraynosti can not live in the same state as those who came together with punitive troops. Build a united country with those who jump on the Maidan, is still possible. To those who has your house of Grad and howitzers - is somewhat more complicated. Recipe by which the Ukrainian authorities will solve this problem is already evident - ethnic cleansing and population replacement. Actually, it has already begun, and will continue to practice more actively. Enemy state with sorokamilionnym zombie population army with combat experience, which will soon be reconstructed by advanced Western patterns, is ready to get off the conveyor. Ukraine in the near future is really doomed to fascism. But fascism is not so much of Russian state-run media reports, many of the old Soviet definition - terrorist dictatorship of big business. Ukraine can be anything - a poor, degraded, collapsing doomed to decay. But it did not stop her from coming to the West to use resources for its main purpose - the maximum counter Russia. As mentioned above, the construction and finalization of the Ukrainian nation is coming to an end, and this cake now lacks a single cherry - a military victory over Russia. And the fact that Russia does not accept what is happening in the Donbas slightest participation, no one cares. The defeat of the militias will be perceived that way: Ukraine defeated Russia. And this perception is common for people both in Western and on the eastern side of the Russian-Ukrainian border. And indeed everywhere. It makes no sense to say what cost all it portends for Russia and its present leadership. It makes no sense and give any advice, because they were given long before the Ukrainian crisis, when the first crowds began to gather at the Independence. The main question now sounds very clear: whether we live in the real Russia, or around is still the good old times of the Russian Federation and Daytona Khasavyurt. It is time to reap the rewards of all the twenty-odd years of good and adequate in Moscows policy in the Ukrainian direction. Perhaps these fruits will be fatal for the Russian statehood. Vladimir Zotov
Posted on: Fri, 04 Jul 2014 21:10:29 +0000
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