WHERES THE RAIN? Wanted to take a minute to address why showers were few and far between today. A couple of factors led to our cloudy day in the Triad which only had a few showers from time to time. Admittedly, a bit less rain than I had anticipated. 1. Moisture flow was deflected away from the Piedmont of NC in a few directions. Mountains deflected much of the moisture well north and west of the Piedmont, and the secondary moisture stream was kinked more south and east -- meaning the Triad just missed on some of the occasional showers we would have seen otherwise. 2. Low dew points (dry air at the surface) meant that it took a while for the atmosphere to saturate once the moisture arrived above the surface. This made it harder for it to rain, and surely scoured out a few showers that we would have seen otherwise. 3. Computer model simulations over-estimated the rainfall potential of the situation. I was discounting them a bit from the start, and the event still underperformed beyond my discounted totals. WHAT ABOUT TONIGHT / TOMORROW? I still do anticipate more substantial showers to materialize tonight into early tomorrow. 1. The atmosphere is better saturated to begin with which will allow rain to fall once the moisture arrives. 2. The moisture stream will be better positioned farther east so that it wont be as deflected by the mountains for round 2. FORECAST: Mainly dry through midnight, with steadier showers developing by morning. Tapering off to occasional drizzle by the afternoon. Hope this helps you understand the forecast process. We learn more about predicting the atmosphere on days like today than on the days we get it 100% right. - TB
Posted on: Mon, 29 Dec 2014 02:20:29 +0000
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