Well I guess its all over.... Winter is a bust, were never going to get any snow, and everybody was wrong. Or at least thats what some are saying. I am urging everybody right now to STOP overreacting to impulsive forecasts that have been put all over Facebook. It seems like every time a computer model shows a snow flake, there are alerts all over Facebook. Contrary, each time a computer model doesnt show a favorable pattern for cold and snow, pages have impulsively issued a statement that winter is over and were never going to see snow. I had someone ask me last night what I thought of a statement made from a weather page saying that winter has turned into a blowtorch, which means it will stay warm for most of the rest of winter. I said two things. First of all, that forecast is coming from a snow hungry snow lover who is frustrated. The second thing I said was there is no evidence of a BLOWTORCH. Is there a chance winter wont be as cold and snowy as some including myself thought? Sure. I said in the winter forecast that seasonal forecasts are typically not very accurate, to state that politely. BUT: I DID NOT say this winter would be like last year by any means. I said it would be cold and snowy or cold and wet COMPARED TO AVERAGE. By the way folks, we still have the rest of December, January, February, and the beginning of March to see how things set up. Everything still tells me a serious pattern change is coming by mid-January. Yes, it is true that it WAS supposed to come earlier, but the enhanced energy in the Pacific has delayed it. All other signs say it will still be cold and snowy compared to average. The only thing I see that can prevent that is if a kelvin wave occurs and it flattens the sub-tropical jet, which would keep us mild for a few weeks. That has not happened yet, nor do I expect it to. But as seasonal forecasts go, there is always a chance. I will wrap-up by saying this: I love snow. It is no secret. But have I ever made an impulsive forecast about it? No. And have I ever terribly blown a forecast? No. So, everybody calm yourselves. We are not even at Christmas yet, and we have almost 3 MONTHS left of winter. Ok, thats all from me about this whole pattern situation. -Christian
Posted on: Tue, 23 Dec 2014 22:05:01 +0000
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