7 reasons why the PDP will win the 2015 presidential elections with a wide margin again. I believe that we need to start bracing ourselves for the possible re-election of Goodluck Jonathan as president again for another 4 years. Our consistent denials leave us grossly unprepared for what usually turns out as hugely corrupt and highly inefficient socio-political systems. Who really thinks that the APC will win? I think people who believe that miracles happen on a per second basis believe such. People who have good hearts but weak hands. Individuals and groups who wish Nigeria well but who unconsciously believe that changing Nigeria happens during sleep. Lets break this down. 1) The presidential elections will hold on the 14th of February 2015, (some 4 months away from today) but the only party with a presidential candidate remains the PDP - talk about early planning and early preparations. I learnt in secondary school that the earlier you start preparing for an examination, the higher the likelihood of excelling in that examination. I guess that this simple rule does not apply to the APC else why do they not know that they require longer periods of time to gain real political acceptance with the electorate beyond the media hypes which appeal to just a fraction of the educated. The APC will hopefully get a candidate when it is 3 months to a general election and hope to win in a nation of multiple interests as Nigeria? There goes my first reason. 2) When you have a strong contestant for a position you do double of what he or she is doing to outsmart him/her. The PDP currently enjoys the power of incumbency (which has proven an exclusive ingredient for re-election as president in Nigeria) while the APC basically has some states and goodwill to counter the PDP. They have however failed to present to Nigerians, an ideology that ties our perception of them beyond oposition. There is no communicated philosophy beyond the progressives tag which I bet 70% of their voters have no idea or clues per what that word means. The APC has failed to throw a concept or support ideation that is appealing beyond removing Goodluck. This situation unchanged, can never remove PDP from Aso Rock. 3) Unfortunately in this electoral period and dispensation, money still counts. Bloggers will be bribed and writers will be compromised on account of favours. Instead of the APC engaging in citizen education - the deliberate re-orientaion of societys social values and a re-caliberation of the measures of political worth, they have pursued winning PDP Governors and folks with vigour that should have been expended on changing the psyche of Nigerians from cheap money politics to enduring political realizations. As usual, from now to February 2015, billions of Naira will flow to many community youth leaders, opinion leaders, traditional rulers, local government thugs and millions of people who will never read this post. They will receive PDP money (which the APC cannot match) and turn their eyes to the rigging that the police and electoral officers would effect. Villages and remote wards will all be cleared by the PDP whether the PDP admit it or not. We must however remember that rigging is only facilitated too where there is a minimal level of acceptance for the rigger. And we all agree, the PDP is a very POPULAR PARTY. 4) The PDP will take advantage of Nigerians collective Amnesia. We are very forgetful people and with more talk than work. If the PDP decides to power homes with electricity from next month to January 2014, majority of Nigerians in the celebration of the mood will normally forget that they suffered lack of electricity for 75% of the earlier 4 years. The APC however does not yet know how to engage in respectable propaganda. They go so critical of the PDP that Nigerians already have mental assumptions of what their positions are on any issue thereby paying little or no attention to the real issues when they are being raised. They should have learnt to genuinely praise GEJ on some occasions to retain interest in their usual critical submissions such that when they articulate positions of a failed national infrastructure such as electricity, we can tune ourselves better to what that is and be thus guided when casting votes. 5) The PDP has won the defection game. While the media was awash with news of defections a year ago in favour of the APC,the PDP has silently won more prominent politicians into their fold from not just the APC but from APGA, the Labour Party, and the Accord Party. The APC won 2nd Term governors (apart from Kwara State) from the PDP but Rivers State State and Adamawa remain PDP strongholds. In a match of political capacity and action, the PDP, by a far stretch has proven a better political chess player. 6) Goodluck Jonathan will likely remain lucky regardless of who the political supporters of Boko Haram are. If it is indeed his government and his friends sponsoring Boko Haram, then their plot to weaken the political stronghold of the APC (North Eastern Nigeria ) will see them taking advantage of political apathy in that part of the country to clinch electoral victory. On the other hand, if Boko Haram is sponsored by external parties, the government will still continue to engage in fear tactics that cripple that political economy while engaging in reconstruction works that end up as political and economic favours to the powers that be in that region. Either ways, PDP have the manipulative advantage. 7) Signals on the APC wall indicate that either Atiku Abubakar or Mohammed Buhari will emerge presidential candidate of the APC. This reality is one of the best guarantees for a Goodluck Jonathan re-election. Atiku Abubakar, ever since he failed to win Goodluck Jonathan within the PDP during the contest for the primaries about 4 years ago lost my respect. I hought that he was a heavier political juggernaut but incumbency is is an albatross in these climes. The same factors subsist so Atiku will never win Goodluck Jonathan because his strength really lies in the PDP and not in the APC. He cannot win the South East, the South South, the North Central or the North West with PDP roaming those locations viciously with power and money. Buhari has also lost to Goodluck Jonathan marking 3 losses at the presidential election. What has changed since his losses? The system? No. The voters? No. INEC? No. The Police? No. The Military? No. If all factors of 2011 remain same, expect a Goodluck Jonathan victory, again. Only the likes of Nasir Ahmad El-Rufai, Babatunde Fashola and possibly an Oshiomole spun within a presidential ticket can spark fresh interest. I am Wole Temidire Aguda, and these subjective views remain mine with no recourse to any political interest.
Posted on: Sun, 12 Oct 2014 10:39:06 +0000
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