OSUN POLL: THE BATTLE OF POWER AND PERSONALITY The coming Saturday, 9th August 2014 shall be a memorable day in the lives and destinies of the people of Osun State. Indeed, it shall be a day in which contestants shall otherwise look up to electorate for help as the power rests with the poor masses whose conditions they fail to improve. In retrospect, I have taken time and pains to study the political structure and superstructure of Osun State and they shall form the bases of my objective analysis and winnability test of the two major contenders, Omisore and Aregbesola with elaborate erosion of political boulder and boundary. Omisore is no doubt a strong, stable and solid figure in Osun politics, a formal Deputy Governor and a two-term Senator of Federal Republic of Nigeria coupled with wealth, friends, associates and supporters in all the nooks and crannies of Osun State but fall and failure are always the rewards of arrogance. Based on my personal study and empirical analysis, Omisore will need more than political sagacity to realize his ambition of becoming the Governor of Osun State as shall be discussed below: 1. Personality and Power:- Omisore has at his disposal political power and principalities. Nobody can undermine the power of PDP when it comes to exercising the power of incumbency most especially the use and control of security agencies and personnel to get the impossible done and it is the only mechanism the can guarantee his victory. In the area of personality, Omisore is a bad product and as such he is not sellable. All fingers pointed on him as the killer of Bola Ige and later he was exonerated by court but he still has a huge moral burden to discharge in this connection. What is the essence of politics of maiming and killing? 2. Manifestoes:- In ideal society, the manifestoes of the candidates vying for a political office determine their chances in an election. Omisore is coming to an election without manifestoes. Tell me his plan for the people of Osun State. One can then infer with all level of accuracy that he-Omisore- only relies on the incumbent power of Federal Government to win the election. 3. Religious Division of Osun State:- In the coming gubernatorial election, religion has a big role to play. In Osun State, Muslims outnumber Christians and the way political campaigns, canvassing and traversing are trickled down to churches and mosques, Omisore’s chance is slim and narrow. 4. Voting Strength and Statistics:- I will limit my analysis by sampling system to the local governments that have fifty thousand registered votes and above. Compare the data and statistics bellow: Local Governments Registered Voters Osogbo 110,670 Ife Central 95,471 Ife East 81,430 Olorunda 71,580 Iwo 66,657 Ifelodun 57,591 Ilesa East 54,746 Irewole 53,487 Ilesa West 52,286 Ejigbo 51,623 Ayedaade 51,252 Aregbesola and Omisore are from the same Senatorial District. From the data above, Oshogbo, the state capital which is the microcosm of all the towns and villages in Osun State, has the highest number of votes, followed by Ife Central and Ife East which is the town of Omisore. By rule of thumb, Omisore has edge over Aregbesola if his people do not sell him out. 5. Ife and Oyo Power Tussle:- By history, Alaafin of Oyo and Ooni of Ife will never stop fighting directly or indirectly over the royal control and leadership of Yoruba Land. When Ife people rose against Modakeke in communal crisis, Alaafin of Oyo (Iku baba yeye) lent his helping hands to Modakeke as their progenitor to make sure they were not wiped off by Ife rented thugs and killers. Indirectly, it was a battle between Ooni and Alaafin and all towns in Osun State (Modakeke, Gbogan, Ode Omu, etc.) that can trace their origin back to Oyo, see Ife people as enemies since then. Some may argue that Omisore played an important role to ensure peace reign between the two irate towns but what does dog have to do with lion? Love it or leave it, Ife-Oyo crisis is another determinant factor in this election. On the other hand, Aregbesola who knows how to derive power from the people does not have listening ears. Osun people rejected his unification of schools policy and he still goes ahead and it remains the Achilles heel of his administration today. I do not see any economic benefit in the monopoly of school uniform given to a company that is not situated in Osun State and selling to the poor students at exorbitant rate. Secondly, the debt profile of Osun State is too high to my liking as debt remains the greatest poverty. Notwithstanding, Aregbesola performed creditably well and he has laid a good foundation for the development of Osun State. In conclusion, my political philosophy, ideology and idiosyncrasy centre on personality of a candidate rather than political party consideration because there is no meaning of politics without development. That is why I strongly believe in my party picking the right candidate for an election. I lest expected the calibres of people like Otito Atikanse, Tolu Baleye, Gani Muhammed, Victor Olabimtan, etc. drumming support for Omisore who left PDP to support the re-election of Gov. Olusegun Mimiko. If one good turn deserves another, bad turn also deserves another. In an ideal society, Omisore should have buried his head in shame if at all he survived the criminal charges leveled against him let alone contesting an election because his hands are stickingly soiled. As such, it will be ludicrous and lugubrious to see Omisore rigged in as the winner of the election and that can be the beginning of crisis and uproar in the South West of Nigeria. Thank you.
Posted on: Tue, 05 Aug 2014 15:59:07 +0000
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