Super Bowl 2015: Predictions and Latest Odds Ahead of Conference Championships: Headed into the AFC and NFC Championship Games, the Seattle Seahawks and New England Patriots are as clear favorites. As well see shortly, both home teams are prohibitive early favorites and deserved favorites to advance to Super Bowl XLIX. However, history suggests that even significant favorites arent necessarily locks when the competition reaches this high of a level. Since the 2002 division realignment, favorites in the conference championship are just 13-11 against the spread, per Pro-Football-Reference. That includes a paltry 2-4 record for teams favored by at least a touchdown. Thus, savvy bettors have the opportunity to cash in, not only on this weeks lines, but on the current championship odds. Using the post-divisional round lines from Odds Shark, heres an early forecast for the best and worst championship bets among the remaining four teams. Better Underdog Pick: Green Bay Packers (31-5 or +620) The extremely long odds from the Indianapolis Colts might look enticing, especially given how unexpectedly strong the Colts were in the trenches Sunday. However, the Colts are still the most flawed team left in the field, whereas the Packers showed the ability to erase whatever shortcomings they may have had. The main concern surrounding Green Bay is obviously Aaron Rodgers health, as the potential MVP quarterback was noticeably gimpy throughout their narrow escape against the Dallas Cowboys. Given that he posted his lowest single-game quarterback rating, yards per attempt and adjusted yards per attempt against Seattle back in Week 1, a limited Rodgers doesnt exactly inspire confidence. However, Rodgers still posted a robust 83.1 QBR while averaging 9.0 yards per attempt. He wont be at Lambeau next week, and the Seahawks defense is obviously a big upgrade over the overachieving Dallas defense. Nevertheless, its clear Rodgers loosened up as the game went on, a notion the numbers and postgame interviews supported: If Rodgers can operate efficiently, even while at less than 100 percent health, that gives Green Bay a legitimate chance at the upset. Since Week 1, rookie Davante Adams and right tackle Derek Sherrod have emerged to stabilize the ancillary parts of the Packers offense, while space-eating defensive tackle Brandon Mebane has been subtracted from the Seahawks defense. No. 2 corner Byron Maxwell is a question mark as well after leaving the divisional round game with an illness: Defensively, the Packers have added more speed to the second level with the midseason adjustment of having Clay Matthews and Sam Barrington as the nickel package linebackers. Seattles spread-to-rush offensive philosophy wrecked havoc on plodders like A.J. Hawk and Brad Jones, as Russell Wilson and Marshawn Lynch combined to average 5.1 yards per carry. Even the threat of Wilsons legs opened up big-play opportunities. The Packers are much better equipped to face the Seahawks this time around. More importantly, though, Green Bay would likely be favored or a pick-em proposition against whoever emerges from the AFC. Thus, betting on the Packers now gives you an opportunity to hitch your ride onto the potential Super Bowl favorite, even though theyre currently seen as third in the pecking order. Better Favorite Pick: New England Patriots (7-4 or +175) If the above logic applied to the Packers, then that makes the Patriots a safer bet than Seattle, even though the Seahawks are arguably the more well-rounded team. The Pats do have slightly longer odds; combined with the ostensibly softer championship game, New England offers more value as the clear second favorites. While its probably dangerous to invest too much stock in the Packers-Seahawks Week 1 game, the Pats and Colts played a much more recent contest in Week 11, one in which Jonas Gray became an overnight sensation after rushing for 201 yards behind a power-based game plan that used Jumbo six-offensive linemen sets to exploit a small Indy front seven. Grays performance was not out of the ordinary for the Patriots—in their last two games against the Colts, New England has posted a jaw-dropping 480 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns (!) on the ground. Some may counter with the argument the Colts have not allowed an individual 100-yard rusher since that debacle. Indy figures to commit to a game plan like the one they constructed against Denver. They committed to stopping C.J. Anderson while also playing press coverage to take away Peyton Mannings quick reads. However, the Patriots have one confounding offensive weapon that the Broncos didnt, one that throws a monkey wrench in that idea: Indeed, the Patriots havent needed to rely on Tom Bradys right arm much in the past two Colts meetings, but the evidence suggests they could if needed. Based on Football Outsiders opponent-adjusted DVOA metrics, the Colts ranked 27th in defending opposing tight ends. Indy also ranked 31st against running backs, which could compel the Pats to turn to their uptempo shotgun sets with Shane Vereen if necessary. On defense, the Patriots have done an excellent job bringing out the worst in Andrew Luck. The third-year quarterback had a career-defining game in carrying the Indy offense to a productive day against a solid Denver defense, but its tough to expect a similar effort when considering his history against the Patriots: New England will bring essentially the same defense that blanketed a one-dimensional Colts offense for much of the Week 11 meeting. Dan Herron wasnt the Colts starting back in that November game—Indy impossibly had 19 rushing yards on 16 attempts—and it seems likely that he and the Indy defensive front seven will need to totally flip the script for the ground game to keep this manageable. Thats not impossible if the Colts replicate their divisional-round showing, but 18 games of evidence suggest that that win was an outlier, particularly in regards to how they performed in the trenches. New England might not necessarily be favored against either NFC team, but it probably possesses the greatest odds of simply reaching the big game, making them an intriguing bet. Read more NFL news on BleacherReport #Football #NFL #SuperBowl #SportsOdds
Posted on: Mon, 12 Jan 2015 12:36:28 +0000
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