WILL THERE BE ELECTION IN 2015 - PAT UTOMI The orgy of violence that has increasingly wrapped its arms around Nigeria is making its embrace a Bear hug. From the north East of Nigeria which long relocated to somewhere between Pakistan and Somalia, to the North central which which seems to have become Liberia of old, it is a war, to draw from Bob Marley’slexican It is really war in the morning, war in evening because the philosophy that holds one tongue or another faith inferior has not being utterly discredited and abandoned. So it is a war with the cattle rustlers in the Northwest and herdsmen even in Delta State where farms, including mine, have being set on fire by herdsmen. Why are more people dying everyday in a Nigeria at ‘peace’ than Syria at war? This is partly because of an unjust economic system that has left many out of the loop, poor leadership that has not bandaged wounds early enough and let them become festering sores and a political culture that has failed to focus on truly important issues of wealth and job creation as the elites scrambled for economic rent from an enclave oil economy. The reality, all things considered is that we are being encircled by this carnival of death from our neighbours matchetes. And these have implications for much, including the elections of 2015. There are those who see the link between this culture of violence and election possibilities so clearly they are daring to suggest that elements in power who fear the elections could sweep them out are investigating and fueling the violence so elections are either aborted or the presence of the military will be so strong that election results would be very easily fabricated as the people are intimidated into staying at home. My experience in Warri with the senatorial bye-elections a few months ago indicates this is plausible. There the military’s presence was so heavy that citizens simply stayed at home and the results came according to plan. Should this happen it could provide the moments triumph for those who will benefit from being `elected’.But it would be Pyrrhic victory. It would only breed more violence and drive Nigeria down the predicted path of the coming Anarchy. Proactive thinking is required. The big trouble with Nigeria is that problems that advertise themselves long before they show up are hardly proactive challenged and nipped in the bud. Elites who in their greed are deafened and do not hear the sound of the furious train rushing down the track need to be educated with pictures of former ministers begging for a bowl of Rice in Somali refugee camps, the smelling corpse of a once almighty Muammar Gaddaffice on the road side in Libya and how many who wanted everything ended up with nothing. A good first step would be to summon an all-politician’s summit on the conduct of the 2015 elections. These summit should both set the boundaries of acceptable conduct, with appropriate sanctions for their breach and work up contingencies for how to move forward if things cross certain threshold and threaten to rock the boat fundamentally. Planning in anticipation of challenges to the integrity of elections from the current reality is so important when you look at the landscape. By the time you rule out the Northeast, North Central, some South south and even parts of the Northwest from the territories INEC with the best of intentions can conduct free and fair elections and the crisis of legitimacy plaguing the system already. This is the urgency of now, acting to check the possibilities that 2015 may be a farce. If not managed well this could be breaking point for the beautiful dream of a country. PU
Posted on: Fri, 18 Apr 2014 20:20:17 +0000
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