Tuesday, December 3, 2013, 11:05 AM A cold front will move through Arkansas Wednesday and Wednesday night, but the really cold air will lag somewhat behind the wind shift that marks the passage of the cold front. During the day on Thursday: Freezing rain and sleet are likely to begin in the northwest part of the state and could reach southward into the Ouachitas. By the end of the day, the freezing rain and sleet should spread to parts of north central Arkansas. Around dawn on Friday: Precipitation should transition to snow in northwest Arkansas and probably in parts of north central Arkansas. Freezing rain and sleet will spread to northeast Arkansas and will be occurring in the Ouachitas. Freezing rain and sleet could make it to parts of central Arkansas. Later on Friday is where things get trickier. A lot depends on the amount of cold air that is spilling into the state at the time. Chances seem pretty good that freezing rain and sleet will occur in the central part of the state. Farther south, there could be a transition to freezing rain and sleet by the end of the day. Overall, precipitation will gradually diminish from northwest to southeast from Friday afternoon into Friday evening. Winter Storm Watches have already been posted from Thursday into Friday for much of northern and western Arkansas, as well as parts of central Arkansas. By the way, this is the furthest in advance that I recall our ever issuing Winter Storm Watches. This is a good indication that there is pretty high confidence in the forecast, even this far in advance. Some of these Watches are likely to transition to Winter Storm Warnings or Ice Storm Warnings in later forecasts. In addition, Watches or Winter Weather Advisories may be extended to more counties as the weather system approaches. Keep in mind that, no matter what the exact headline on the forecast says, this system is going to produce a lot of hazardous driving conditions in Arkansas. Note: A Winter Storm Warning typically signifies that a variety of precipitation types is expected, while an Ice Storm Warning indicates that most of the precipitation will be in the form of freezing rain. Could this be the type of system that brings ice-caused power outages in Arkansas? Absolutely. Somewhere in the northern half of the state seems like the most likely place if such a scenario ends up occurring. Rain will fall before the ice and snow in most parts of Arkansas. The exception could be northwest Arkansas, where freezing rain and sleet may be the precipitation type to begin with. Treating of roads is very difficult when rain arrives before the wintry precipitation, as the rain washes away any chemicals that are applied to the road. Total precipitation (including rain and melted ice and snow) is likely to range from around an inch in northwest Arkansas up to 2 or 3 inches in the southeast. Another round of winter weather is expected Saturday night and Sunday. This precipitation should be considerably lighter in intensity. This will probably start off as snow in the north, with freezing rain or sleet elsewhere. Chances are, there will be a transition to freezing rain and sleet in the north and cold rain in the south, with some freezing rain and sleet across the middle of the state.
Posted on: Tue, 03 Dec 2013 17:30:36 +0000